Winter snow forecasts are painting a mixed picture across the United States, as forecasters expect a strengthening El Niño to influence the upcoming season.
While AccuWeather expects below-normal snowfall across much of the northern U.S., another forecast identified several regions that could receive above-average snow. A federal forecast, meanwhile, does not forecast snowfall totals specifically, but its precipitation outlook provides another indication of where wetter or drier conditions may develop.
AccuWeather
Private forecasting firm AccuWeather recently issued its winter outlook, pointing to El Niño as a potential influence on the season's weather.
Much of the Northern U.S. could see below-normal snowfall this winter, it said, adding that warmer than average conditions across the Northeast and Great lakes could reduce snowfall.
Western states, including portions of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, were forecast for above normal snowfall. Parts of New Mexico, Colorado, northern Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri could also see more snow compared to historical averages, according to AccuWeather.
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The outlet also forecast 10 to 20 inches of snow in New York City, compared with a historical average of 29.8 inches. Chicago could receive 12 to 25 inches, below its average of 38.4 inches, while Boston is forecast to record 15 to 30 inches against an average of 49.2 inches.
"While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities," said AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok. "So that is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February."
Old Farmer’s Almanac
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has predicted that several regions are in line for above-average snowfall.
This winter forecast said snowfall could exceed seasonal averages in central New England, along the Appalachians, across the Intermountain region, in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.
Meanwhile, the Old Farmer’s Almanac called for below-normal snowfall across other parts of the country, including the Deep South, High Plains, and Desert Southwest.
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Farmers' Almanac
Not to be confused with the similar but separate Old Farmer’s Almanac, the Farmers’ Almanac predicted the upcoming winter will feature short bursts of snow and bitter cold across the North, alongside a mix of rain, sleet, ice and heavy, wet snow in the Northeast. It also suggested the southern Rockies could see particularly favorable conditions for mountain snowfall.
The Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes could see “sudden” snow squalls, according to the publication. The Pacific Northwest could experience a less dependable snow season, it said. While the northern Plains and Upper Midwest may see drier spells, snow periods are still possible, it added.
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NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook last week.
While it doesn’t cover snow specifically like the forecasts mentioned above, it points to which parts of the U.S. are most likely to see more precipitation than would occur normally over the winter months. In meteorology, precipitation refers to water falling from the atmosphere to the ground in either liquid or frozen form.
NOAA’s winter outlook showed higher chances of above-normal precipitation across much of the West and East Coasts, along the southern tier of the country, and into the Central Plains. Drier-than-average conditions are more likely in Michigan and northeastern Wisconsin, as well as parts of Washington, Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota, according to the outlook.
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What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific that can influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide.
Typical El Niño effects in the U.S. can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.
A Climate Prediction Center forecast issued earlier this month said the phenomenon had strengthened and would continue to do so through the end of the year. It also said chances remained high for an El Niño exceeding the strength of all previous events dating back to 1950.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Emma Lee-Sang