ASTANA, October 12. /TASS/. Global grain prices will rise if the escalation in the Black Sea region continues as exports from countries in this area account for about 40% of the global wheat trade, Evgeny Karabanov, head of the analytics committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, told TASS.
"Based on wheat production, consumption, and stock volumes, a positive balance shaped up in the market for the 2026-2027 marketing year. However, the escalation evolving in the Black Sea destabilized the global market in terms of available wheat supply. Against this backdrop, and due to droughts in Europe and the US, global wheat prices have surged by 20-30% (depending on the markets) over the past three months, reaching their highest level since August 2023," Karabanov said.
The situation in the Black Sea region will directly impact the global grain market as this sea is just as important for the global wheat market as the Strait of Hormuz is for the oil market, the expert noted. "Exports from Black Sea countries make up around 40% of the global wheat trade, while oil exports through Hormuz account for about 20% of global trade. In the event of a further long-term escalation in the Black Sea region, global grain prices will continue to grow and poor countries that rely on wheat imports will find themselves in a difficult economic situation," he added.
According to estimates by the Grain Union, at the end of the previous marketing year (September 2025 - August 2026), Kazakhstan exported 14.7 million tons of wheat and processed products in grain equivalent, which was the best result in the country's history. Deliveries were mainly directed to the markets of Central Asian countries, Afghanistan, Iran, and China.
"Due to worsening logistics issues linked to the actual blocking of exports through the Russian ports of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, alternative routes for supplying Kazakh grain to the global market through the port of Poti (Georgia) and Baltic ports will be significantly more expensive -- the price will not be competitive," Karabanov added.