Kenyans have raised concerns over unusually hot days in Nairobi and other parts of the country, with temperatures remaining high even as the October-November-December rainy season gets underway.
The heat has left many wondering why the country is experiencing prolonged sunshine when El Niño was expected to bring wetter conditions across much of Kenya, but experts say increased seasonal rainfall does not guarantee continuous rain or cooler temperatures.
Weather expert Maithya wa Vilivū says seasonal models indicate Nairobi could remain warmer than usual through the final quarter of 2026 and into early 2027, with temperatures projected to be between 0.5°C and 1.5°C above normal.
Maithya's assessment puts the median temperature increase at about 1.1°C, while his seven-day outlook indicated daytime highs of 28°C to 30°C, with some parts of Nairobi potentially exceeding 30°C.
Images of a hot and dry environment brought about by hot sunny weather
Photo
Muungwana Mkuu
He attributed the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts to the interaction between El Niño and other climate systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves and tropical storms in the Indian Ocean, which influence the movement of moisture and the distribution of rainfall.
Experts explain that although El Niño is associated with increased rainfall in East Africa, other climate systems influence when and where rain falls, meaning Nairobi may continue experiencing hot, sunny days even during the rainy season.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre has projected enhanced rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa during the October-December season, although the timing and distribution of the rains are expected to vary across locations.
Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) experts have also explained that delays in the onset of rainfall in some areas do not necessarily mean the seasonal forecast has changed, while the strength of El Niño alone cannot determine how much rain a particular location will receive.
The hot conditions also come as global temperatures remain a concern, with Reuters Climate Monitor's Heat Storm Tracker forecasting that a heat storm would cover 32.1 per cent of the planet, potentially affecting 1.7 billion people, or 21 per cent of the global population.
The tracker reported that heat storms and heat waves covered an average of 18.1 per cent of Earth's surface each day over the past five years, compared with 2.1 per cent between 1961 and 1990.
Back home, the Kenya Met forecast maximum daytime temperatures exceeding 35°C in parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana counties between October 20 and 26 this year.
Nairobi was forecast to record a maximum of 29°C and a minimum of 12°C during the same period, while Lodwar was expected to reach 38°C, Mandera 37°C, Wajir 36°C and Garissa 35°C.
KMSA's outlook for the October-December season projects above-average rainfall across much of Kenya alongside warmer-than-average temperatures, meaning the anticipated rains do not necessarily rule out continued hot days, particularly where rainfall is delayed or unevenly distributed.
A picture of emaciated cows due to ravaging drought in Kenya
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