Since opening the season with convincing home wins over NC State and Norfolk State, Virginia has alternated wins and losses. That's about the only consistent thing about the Cavaliers in 2026.
On Friday night, defending ACC champion Duke visits Scott Stadium in a game that's critical to Virginia's push for bowl eligibility. If recent trends continue, the Cavaliers should feel confident; they're 4-0 at home this season and lost their most recent game (at SMU last Saturday).
But few things feel like sure things with Tony Elliott's program lately. Here are three big questions for the Cavaliers (4-3, 2-2 ACC) as they prepare to host the Blue Devils (4-2, 1-2):
1. Can they contain Nate Sheppard?
In all three of its losses this season, Virginia has allowed at least one opposing player to rush for over 100 yards. Against West Virginia, two Mountaineers (Cam Cook and quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr.) each topped the century mark.
Now the Cavalier defense braces for arguably its toughest assignment yet. Sheppard, a sophomore, leads the ACC in rushing yards (820) and touchdowns (eight). He averages 5.9 yards per carry and topped 100 in each of his first four games (followed by a 99-yard effort against Georgia Tech).
And while the 5-10, 205-pound Sheppard failed to reach 100 yards on the ground in his last two games (both losses), he caught a combined 18 passes for 189 yards and a TD against Georgia Tech and North Carolina. The Cavaliers figure to see a heavy dose of No. 20 Friday night.
"Last year, I was like, man, this kid can't be a freshman, right? Because he played like an upperclassman last year, right?" Elliott said this week. "And so, where you've seen him improve is he's really, really making an impact in the passing game, right?... He looks good. So definitely by far the best back that we've seen all year and probably the best one in the league."
2. Will Des Kitchings stay with the run?
Virginia's ground game hasn't been nearly as explosive as Duke's, but it has been effective at times. Jekail Middlebrook, Xay Davis, Xavier Brown and Noah Vaughn are all averaging at least 4,9 yards oer attempt, and although his stats are skewed by negative sack yardage, Beau Pribula has picked up multiple first downs.
But in several games, offensive coordinator Des Kitchings has seemed to abandon the game plan, especially when the Cavaliers are trailing. If he needs proof that he doesn't have to, he should look at the Syracuse game, where Virginia erased a 10-point second-half deficit while running 14 times for 72 yards in the fourth quarter alone.
Duke's run defense is stout, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. But a consistent ground game can wear down a defense, especially since Virginia's receiving corps is limited by injuries.
3. Will a turnover turn the tide?
Both the Cavaliers and Blue Devils have been very protective of the ball this season. Each has committed just three turnovers all year, fewer than all but four teams at the FBS level.
Virginia has lost two fumbles and an interception, while Duke has given up one fumble and two picks. The Blue Devils' defense has just one interception all year, while the Cavaliers have five
In what's expected to be a close game — Virginia is a slim favorite — even a single takeaway could prove critical.
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