PASADENA, Calif. — The Badgers were in a tough spot late in the fourth quarter against the Bruins. Down two scores with just over six minutes to play, it was going to take another Penn State-esque comeback for Wisconsin to pull off the win.
That obviously didn't happen, and the Badgers' offense went 3-and-out at potentially the worst time.
Quarterback Colton Joseph ran up the middle for a gain of two yards on first down. He muffed a low snap on second down but recovered the ball and threw an incompletion. On third down, he was sacked by Bruins defensive back Mason Rivera.
Facing a 4th-and-9, with the score 17-7, the clock reading 5:26 and the ball at the 22 yard line, head coach Luke Fickell elected to punt the football back to UCLA.
After the game, I asked Fickell if there was a thought to go for it in that scenario.
“Yeah there was. All I said to the offense was just get us in a manageable one. Inside 6, 7 yards. To be back on your own 15, 20 and 4th-and-10, 12, that’s not a great situation for us," he said.
"We missed our first field goal, which is a momentum thing too when points are as hard to come by as they are. We put ourselves in a position where we take a sack, there’s a litany of things that we didn’t do a real good job of, and they took advantage.”
Badgers punt the game away
Fickell is right in that it's not a "great situation" to go for it on 4th-and-long on your own 22. But it's an even worse situation to give the ball back to the opponent, down two scores with less than five minutes to go. If the Badgers had failed to convert, their hopes probably would've died right then and there. But by not even giving themselves a chance, they chose to die a slow, painful death rather than try to keep their hopes alive.
According to ESPN Analytics, UCLA had a 99.1% percent chance to win after Joseph took the sack that set up the aforementioned 4th-and-9. Even if Wisconsin got a quick stop and got the ball back, it would've had to either use all of its timeouts or burn two-plus minutes off the clock, then get the ball back still down two scores. Quite simply, punting in that scenario was equivalent to conceeding the game.
I understand that Wisconsin's offense wasn't exactly humming in Pasadena. But neither was the defense, which allowed backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach to toss for 264 yards and complete 67% of his passes. The chances of converting that 4th down were certainly slim, but what about the chances of getting a stop, a score, a stop and then another score?
The decision to not go for it on 4th down is far from what cost Wisconsin the game. As Fickell rightfully pointed out, there was a "litany" of things the Badgers needed to do better. Regardless, that call sticks out as an especially curious decision in a disappointing loss.
Add us as a preferred source on Google