The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has warned that prices of fresh milk, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar and garden peas could rise in the coming weeks amid concerns over the cost of living.
In its September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey, released on Wednesday, October 21, the CBK attributed the expected rise in several commodities to prolonged dry weather, higher fuel prices and rising transportation costs.
Out of 466 farmers, retailers and wholesalers interviewed by the CBK, expectations of higher fresh packeted milk prices rose sharply, with 74 per cent of the respondents expecting milk prices to soar.
Expectations of higher prices for white wheat flour rose from 29 per cent to 48 per cent over the same period, while those for fortified maize flour increased from 31 per cent to 47 per cent.
ODM leader Raila Odinga purchasing vegetables from a vendor on Monday, September 27.
ODM Party
More respondents also expected prices of sifted maize flour to rise, with the survey figure increasing from 19 per cent in August to 40 per cent in September, while that for sugar rose from 15 per cent to 28 per cent.
Garden peas were among the non-core food commodities facing higher price expectations, with respondents saying the price could rise significantly in October and subsequent months.
“The Balance of Opinion (BOO) from the September 2026 survey indicates relatively more pronounced expectations for price increases across most of the sampled food commodities one month ahead,” the CBK survey stated.
The CBK survey mainly linked the expected price increases to weather conditions, transportation expenses and the cost of agricultural inputs, which affect production and the movement of food from farms to markets.
“Overall, the findings suggest increased price expectations for sampled core food commodities in the near term, reflecting the role of weather conditions and energy costs in influencing price expectations in the near term,” it added.
The report noted that 97 per cent of respondents identified weather conditions as a factor affecting retail prices, while 92 per cent cited transport costs and 80 per cent pointed to input prices.
Middlemen and brokers were identified by 62 per cent of respondents as influencing retail prices, while 58 per cent cited disruptions in global supply chains.
The survey also cited the impact of the depressed March-May 2026 long rains season, which affected pasture and contributed to milk supply shortages, putting upward pressure on milk prices.
Central Bank of Kenya Governor Kamau Thugge appears before the National Assembly’s Committee on Delegated Legislation, July 30, 2026.
PBU