With Mandate Deadline Looming, Colombia's New Government Pushes to Shrink Peace Oversight

Colombia's new government brought a sharply different posture to the UN Security Council on October 12, laying out an approach to the 2016 peace accord that prioritizes security and reincorporation metrics while signaling a willingness to renegotiate the structural commitments that experts say gave the entire disarmament process its credibility.

The timing is not incidental. The UN Verification Mission's mandate runs out on October 31, and whatever text the Council approves will define how much of the peace agreement remains under international oversight for the coming year.

A New Government, A Sharply Different Posture

The administration's stance had been signaled well in advance. According to Vanguardia, Foreign Minister Omar Bula communicated to the United Kingdom — Colombia's lead country in the Security Council — that the new government aims to "remold" the peace agreement around presidential priorities. The review covers territorial development programs, crop substitution, reincorporation, and rural reform.

Abelardo de la Espriella assumed the presidency on August 7 after winning the June 21 runoff by less than one percentage point over leftist senator Iván Cepeda. During the campaign, he repeatedly attacked the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), the war-crimes tribunal that forms the cornerstone of Colombia's transitional justice system.

In a September 24 interview, Colombia's newly appointed UN Permanent Representative, José Mauricio Gaona Bejarano, said the government would conduct a data-driven review of what functions and what fails in the peace agreement — and would deliver that assessment directly at the October 12 session.

What's at Stake: The Mission's Three Pillars

Since its restructuring under Resolution 2798 in October 2025, the UN Verification Mission operates across three defined areas: the reincorporation of former FARC-EP members; security guarantees for ex-combatants and communities; and comprehensive rural reform. The Security Council Report notes that the Secretary-General's latest 90-day report acknowledges the new administration has stated its intention to comply with the Constitution but has yet to fully outline its implementation approach.

The same report indicates that land formalization has reached approximately 2.28 million hectares, representing roughly 30 percent of the agreement's overall target — with the largest gaps in conflict-affected regions where armed groups remain active.

More than 10,000 former FARC-EP members continue in the reincorporation program — one of the lowest recidivism rates for any disarmament process globally, according to the UN. But the mission's own reporting flags that sustainable reintegration depends directly on the rural conditions those former combatants return to, a linkage the government's planned review could formally decouple from international scrutiny.

Budget Cuts That Signal Priorities

The proposed 2027 national budget, presented to Congress in August, reflects the administration's security-first tilt. Congressional economic commissions approved allocations that would leave the JEP roughly $87.8 million below what it requested. Separately, the Unit for the Search for Persons Deemed as Missing was allocated roughly $15 million less than needed — a shortfall that, the unit has warned, would force the closure of at least half its forensic identification centers and hamper the search for more than 100,000 missing Colombians.

JEP President Judge Alejandro Ramelli has pushed back hard. In an September 18 letter to the International Criminal Court, Ramelli argued that the proposed cuts "weaken the material, legal, and institutional conditions essential for the functioning" of transitional justice, citing a potential conflict with Colombia's 2021 cooperation agreement with the ICC. A separate bill from the right-wing Centro Democrático party, which would allow the High Military and Police Court to automatically review JEP rulings, has deepened those concerns.

Global Witness documented 39 killings of land and environmental defenders in Colombia during 2025 — the fourth consecutive year the country ranked highest globally for such killings.

The Geopolitical Angle: US–Colombia Alignment

Cooperation with Washington — including on the drug trade — is a cornerstone of the De la Espriella foreign policy. That realignment carries direct consequences for the mandate vote. The Security Council Report documented that during the 2025 negotiations, the US conveyed its readiness to veto the mandate renewal if two specific tasks — verification of the ethnic chapter and monitoring compliance with JEP sentences — were retained. The resolution ultimately passed 13 in favour to none against, with Russia and the United States abstaining.

Under the new government's alignment with Washington, a reinstatement of either stripped task is considered unlikely in the upcoming negotiations, according to the Security Council Report.

487 Killings and the Security Question

According to the Secretary-General's latest report covering the period through late September, 487 former FARC-EP combatants have been killed since the 2016 signing — a toll that the UN describes as occurring amid fragile security conditions across several departments.

The same report notes that two separate airstrikes by the new administration against armed groups in Guaviare department in late August killed more than 30 people, including five children between 15 and 16 years old. Analysts at Crisis Group and organizations including WOLA have warned that a hard-security approach disconnected from rural investment and dialogue risks reversing gains in areas where armed groups have historically filled the vacuum left by the state.

The Central Question the Session Leaves Open

The October 12 meeting does not itself produce a vote — but the positions staked out there will define the draft text circulated for the October 31 mandate renewal. Whether the Council accepts a version of peace oversight that excludes the structural reforms meant to prevent a new generation of armed conflict is now the central question before the negotiating table.

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