Are the UK, France being pulled into the Saudi-Houthi conflict?

France and the United Kingdom have both moved to deploy military assets to Saudi Arabia, deepening their defence ties with the kingdom as its conflict with the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God), in Yemen escalates.

Paris last week said it had begun sending assets to Saudi Arabia as part of a previously announced agreement, after President Emmanuel Macron committed to deploying troops and air defence systems to help protect the Red Sea port city of Yanbu, which has come under attack from the Iran-backed Houthis.

The UK, for its part, on Tuesday announced plans to deploy fighter jets to help shield Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks.

Both countries stressed that their support would be defensive.

Analysts say the European moves serve several geopolitical purposes: protecting Saudi oil exports that are important to European energy markets, shoring up their strategic alliance in the Gulf amid US reluctance to offer direct military assistance to Saudi Arabia, and strengthening deterrence against future Houthi attacks.

But the deployments also carry significant risks, many analysts say, potentially drawing the two European states more directly into the protracted Saudi-Houthi conflict.

“If insufficiently deterred, the Houthis may decide that the moment is ripe to test the resolve and resilience of Saudi Arabia’s defensive posture, and attempt to draw Saudi Arabia’s allies even further into the Yemen-Saudi confrontation,” Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera.

‘Support during crisis’

The British and French military support measures come as Saudi Arabia faces a sustained Houthi missile and drone campaign against it, including targeting energy and transport infrastructure.

Houthi attacks targeting Saudi airports in Riyadh and Abha this month have killed 19 people and injured more than 300 others, according to the Saudi-led coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki.

Addressing the UK’s stepped-up military support for Saudi Arabia, UK Defence Secretary Wes Streeting called recent Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia “absolutely despicable”, specifically condemning the group’s targeting of Riyadh airport.

The UK Ministry of Defence said it would deploy Typhoon fighter jets to fly “defensive counter air missions” in Saudi Arabia, send UK military advisers to work with Saudi staff officers and provide an A400M transport aircraft to help move defence material within the kingdom.

French support for Saudi Arabia would include soldiers, radars and defence systems, Macron has said, without detailing the scale of the support.

Urban Coningham, a research fellow at RUSI, noted differences in the British and French roles, with the French mainly limited to protecting Saudi export infrastructure. The British, by contrast, will conduct “defensive patrols where they would shoot down incoming missiles or drones” in Saudi Arabia, as well as provide air-to-air refuelling support for Saudi bombers and jets heading into Yemeni airspace, he said.

Camille Lons, policy fellow and deputy head of the Paris office at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said France is limited in what it can provide to Saudi Arabia, particularly given the demands on European defences amid the war in Ukraine. Still, Paris sees its assistance as a way to “show support [for Saudi Arabia] in times of crisis, and a way to deepen the defence partnership”, Lons told Al Jazeera.

‘Freeing up’ Saudi aircraft

Saudi Arabia will welcome the European deployments, as it has struggled to translate some of its security partnerships into high-level military support.

In September, US President Donald Trump rejected multiple Saudi requests to participate in strikes on the Houthis, agreeing only to provide intelligence and targeting support, the news agency Reuters cited informed sources saying.

Turkiye and Pakistan have committed to “collective deterrence measures”, including potential troop deployments, under the newly signed Mecca defence pact with Saudi Arabia, but the agreement has yet to be ratified in Turkiye.

Egypt’s parliament has also postponed a vote that would authorise its armed forces to support Saudi Arabia.

Nawaf Obaid, a senior fellow at King’s College War Studies Department, called the UK and French deployments “militarily valuable and politically significant”, saying they could help shield the kingdom’s sprawling territory from persistent Houthi air attacks while giving Riyadh more room to focus its own assets on offensive operations.

“The British Typhoons can reinforce Saudi air defences and, crucially, free up Saudi Eurofighters for offensive operations,” Obaid told Al Jazeera. “France’s contribution is particularly important for protecting Yanbu.”

Saudi Arabia “does not need foreign assistance to conduct air strikes”, Obaid added, noting that the kingdom has its own powerful combat aircraft fleet. “What it needs is additional defensive coverage across its enormous territory, particularly for critical energy infrastructure.”

Ozcelik said the recent British move was “not insignificant”, but its deterrent impact was not immediately clear.

“The question remains whether the UK air missions will move the dial in deterring sustained Houthi attacks while Saudi air defences and interceptor stockpiles are stretched,” said Ozcelik. “The difference between deterrence and interdiction is an important one.”

‘Dragged into protracted conflict’

What also remains to be seen is whether the UK and France will maintain a purely defensive posture – and whether the Houthis will recognise that distinction at all.

Coningham said the Houthis could interpret European military involvement, especially the UK’s air-to-air support for Saudi bombers and jets, as “offensive” rather than defensive, leading the group to view those countries as belligerents and their forces as targets.

As a result, Coningham said, the Houthis could strike at British forces stationed in the region – whether in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere, such as Cyprus – or reverse their position on allowing free transit to non-Saudi vessels, including European ships, in the Bab al-Mandeb strait – a key maritime route in the world.

Another potential flashpoint would be a Houthi attack in Saudi Arabia that kills British or French personnel, analysts noted.

“Whether it’s a direct attack planned by the Houthis or collateral damage, if the British or French have any casualties … then there becomes a pointed debate in those countries as to whether they should then retaliate,” said Coningham.

Ozcelik said the UK could face pressure to play a more offensive role in the event of a “mass civilian casualty event” caused by the Houthis or “debilitating attacks on Saudi’s energy infrastructure”, although London would likely view such a scenario as a “last resort”.

“Neither the Mecca signatories nor the UK are inclined to get dragged into deeper and likely protracted conflict inside Yemen,” said Ozcelik.