As Election Day looms, much of the national focus is on whether Democrats will win control of Congress. But in several states, the race for governor is among the tightest, and most consequential, races on the ballot.
The party in control of the White House typically fares poorly in midterm elections. While that usually translates most clearly into losing congressional seats, true “wave” elections often lead to similar shifts in state governments as well.
Multiple states could see the party in the governor’s seat flip. Voters in Ohio, Alaska, and Texas might end up electing their first Democratic governors in decades. In Oregon, the reverse could pan out, with a Republican in contention to upend a Democrat’s hold on the office for the first time since 1982.
Read More: Republican Panic Sets In Over Prospects of a Massive Blue Wave
Here are seven races for governor to watch on Election Day.
Ohio
Ohio's governor's race was thrust into the national spotlight this week after Republican Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign released an ad featuring the estranged mother of his Democrat opponent Amy Acton. Acton’s mother lost custody of Acton and her brother after their stepfather was arrested and indicted on a charge of raping Acton when she was a child.
The ad immediately drew widespread outrage, the latest twist in a race that Republicans had thought they were well positioned to win after Trump won the state by 11 points in 2024. Many Republicans had been expected to vie to replace Gov. Mike DeWine, who couldn’t run again because of term limits. But Trump’s endorsement of Ramaswamy essentially cleared the field for him.
Now Ramaswamy is in a very tight race against Acton, who previously led the Ohio Department of Health during the Covid-19 pandemic. While the Cook Political Report previously marked the Ohio gubernatorial race as “Lean Republican,” it later shifted its rating slightly in favor of Democrats, to “Toss Up.”
Read More: Ramaswamy Facing Tougher Fight Than Republicans Had Expected in Ohio
Many polls show Acton with a narrow lead, but a few suggest that Ramaswamy has a razor-thin lead.
If Acton ultimately wins, it would be the first time in 20 years that Ohio voters had elected a Democrat as governor.
Alaska
The Cook Political Report recently changed its rating for the race in Alaska from a “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.” Alaska’s current governor, Republican Mike Dunleavy, is prohibited from running again because of term limits. The open race to replace him includes one Democrat, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, and three Republicans: Bernadette Wilson, a business owner who has received the backing of President Trump; Dave Bronson, the previous mayor of Anchorage; and Treg Taylor, a former state attorney general.
Kreiss-Tomkins, who was previously a state legislator, finished the state’s open primary race in August in the top spot, with another Democratic candidate, Tom Begich, in second place. In Alaska, the top four candidates in the open primary move on to the general election. But Begich later announced that he was dropping out of the race and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, allowing Taylor to land a spot in the general election ballot.
“The data we’ve seen makes clear that the strongest path to winning in November is not two Democratic candidates competing for the same donors and resources—it’s bringing those people together behind one ticket,” Begich said in a video announcing the suspension of his campaign in August.
Many recent polls show Kreiss-Tomkins leading his three opponents. This month, Trump expressed frustration with all the Republicans still in the race, noting on Truth Social that he had urged Bronson to drop out.
“All Bronson and Taylor will do is take away Votes from the Candidate that has, by far, the best chance of winning,” Trump said in his post. “Now is the time for all Republicans to unite behind Bernadette to ensure she has a tremendous Victory in November!”
Texas
The last time Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ran for re-election in 2022, he won by double digits. He now may be facing his most competitive re-election fight yet; some polls show him holding a slim lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, while others show Hinojosa ahead by a small margin.
“This is an unusual situation in Texas politics,” Joshua Blank, the research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, previously told TIME. “It’s rather uncommon to see any Democratic candidate leading in anything other than a single outlying poll leading up to the election.”
If Hinojosa were to win, it would be the first time voters chose to put a Democrat in the state’s governor’s mansion in more than three decades. The tightness of the race mirrors that of the state’s Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are locked in an expensive fight.
Still, the Cook Political Report suggests that the odds are in Abbott’s favor, rating the race as “Lean Republican.”
Oregon
Amid talk of a national blue wave, the race for governor in Oregon may prove to be a bright spot for Republicans. Gov. Tina Kotek, a Democrat, is trying to fend off a challenge by Republican Christine Drazan, a state senator. Some polls show Kotek ahead by a narrow margin, while others show Drazan in the lead by a similarly small measure. The Cook Political Report previously rated the race as “Likely Democrat,” but has since shifted it slightly in Republicans’ favor, to “Lean Democrat.”
The Cook Political Report says the battle “is one of the rare races moving in Republicans’ direction.” If Drazan were to defeat Kotek, it would mark the first time since 1982 that Oregonians have elected a Republican to the governorship.
Georgia
Georgia is shaping up to be one of the tightest gubernatorial races in the country. It’s one of four that the Cook Political Report has marked as a “Toss Up.” Republican Gov. Brian Kemp couldn’t run for re-election because of term limits, leaving the field open for another member of his party, billionaire Rick Jackson, and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the previous mayor of Atlanta. Polls suggest the race is essentially tied, with some indicating Jackson has a razor-thin lead.
A win by Bottoms would mark a significant shift in the southern state’s politics. While both of Georgia’s current Senators are Democrats, it has been led by a Republican governor since 2003. It would also mean the breaking of a national barrier: Georgia would be the first state in the country to have elected a Black woman as governor.
Nevada
A perennial swing state, Republicans are vying to hold on to its leadership of Nevada’s government. Gov. Joe Lombardo is fending off a challenge from Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Polls are split over who’s in the lead—some showing Lombardo while others showing Ford, both by slim margins. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “Toss Up.”.
Wisconsin
The race to lead this swing state became a wide open free-for-all last year, when Democratic Gov. Tony Evers announced he wasn't running for another term. The race was on the verge of becoming a marquee one for democratic socialists, with progressive Francesca Hong leading in the polls ahead of the Democratic primary, before she ultimately lost the nomination to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a moderate.
Crowley is now vying for the job against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in a race where campaign funding has become a prominent issue, as Tiffany’s bid has been largely bankrolled by three billionaires.
While the Cook Political Report rates this a “Toss Up," multiple recent polls show Crowley with a small lead over Tiffany.