A Druze source in Syria's southern Sweida province who opposes the policies of Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri has dismissed reports of plans to establish an Israeli military base in the province's southeastern countryside.
The source also denied reports that the so-called National Guard was preparing to launch a major offensive against areas under Syrian government control and neighboring Daraa province, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that the claims were “media rumors with no basis on the ground.”
“The reality is different,” the source said.
“While platforms and media outlets affiliated with al-Hijri and his fighters were aggressively spreading these rumors, there were limited preparations to attack internal security positions, but the attack never materialized.”
The source said the reported plans were unlikely to move “beyond the media.”
Since early last week, media outlets affiliated with al-Hijri and the National Guard have reported preparations for a major offensive against government-held areas in rural Sweida, with some threatening to extend the assault into neighboring Daraa province.
The claims have been accompanied by reports of intensive, sustained Israeli helicopter activity over southern Syria, including Sweida, Daraa and Quneitra. Some accounts alleged that helicopters carrying military equipment for Sweida's armed groups had landed in the province's countryside.
Other reports went further, alleging that Sweida’s de facto authorities were in talks with the Israeli government to establish a military base on Tal Qulaib, a hill in the province’s southeast, and install surveillance equipment at its summit.
Amid the reports, one platforms said the National Guard leadership had issued a military circular ordering all sector commanders and field units to bar civilians from approaching or filming at designated strategic hills and locations, warning of legal and judicial action against violators.
The circular called for “strict surveillance and immediate enforcement” at Tal Maaz, Tal al-Fara, Tal Alia, Jabal al-Fina, Tal Qulaib, Tal Shaaf, Tal al-Majda, Tal Sahn and Tal Zawagh in eastern Sweida.
But the Druze military source challenged the claims, saying he was in daily contact with residents of al-Kafr, a town on the slopes of Tal Qulaib.
“Residents confirm that life in the town is entirely normal. There are no signs of a base being established,” he said.
Journalist Omar al-Hariri, a native of southern Syria, also denounced the wave of reports circulated by outlets affiliated with al-Hijri as “fake,” warning against sharing them in a post on X.
He said there was “no truth whatsoever” to claims that Israel was building a military base in Sweida.
He argued that Israel had no need for an air base in Sweida, which lies less than 100 kilometers from Israeli bases in Quneitra and the Golan Heights, putting al-Hijri’s fighters within minutes of Israeli air support.
As for reports of sustained Israeli helicopter flights over southern Syria, al-Hariri said such flights were nothing new. Helicopters had previously delivered weapons, communications equipment, logistical supplies and aid, as well as transported sick and wounded people, he said.
National Guard Turns Accusations on Damascus
National Guard spokesperson Major Talal Amer, however, accused Damascus of plotting an offensive of its own, saying the government sought to distract the public from administrative failures by drawing it into an external conflict.
“We are seeing reinforcements arriving and fortifications being built around the clock in occupied areas,” Amer told Asharq Al-Awsat in a written message.
“Meanwhile, the Damascus government is spreading rumors to divert attention and convince public opinion that it is repelling an attack,” he said.
“If the National Guard intended to launch an offensive to liberate its occupied villages, it would not announce it or leak the plans on social media.”
Amer also rejected calls by Sweida Governor Mustafa al-Bakour for dialogue with residents to resolve the crisis.
Former chief Syrian opposition negotiator and lawyer Mohammed Sabra cast further doubt on the National Guard's ability to mount an offensive, citing the militias' limited manpower, inadequate weapons and internal divisions.
“The militias in Sweida simply do not have the capacity to launch a military attack,” Sabra said.
He said they faced severe shortages of fighters and possessed little beyond small arms, rifles and some anti-armor munitions.
Internal rifts had compounded their weakness, he added, with some groups turning into gangs involved in robbery, looting, kidnapping and the intimidation of civilians.
Their grip on Sweida, Sabra argued, rested not on military strength but on regional power dynamics and ties to Israel.
He warned that Israel could seize on any military operation aimed at ending what he called an "abnormal situation" as a pretext for deeper intervention inside Syria.
Israeli Arms Buildup and Election Uncertainty
Sabra acknowledged that Israeli military and logistical support for Sweida's militias had increased, but questioned whether the buildup signaled an impending offensive against government-controlled areas in western Sweida.
The explanation, he suggested, may lie instead in Israel's own political uncertainty ahead of pivotal parliamentary elections.
If Benjamin Netanyahu lost and another politician was tasked with forming a government, Sabra said, Netanyahu's administration would enter a caretaker period, limiting its ability to create new military or security realities that could obstruct the incoming government's agenda.
The next government's security policy toward Syria remained unknown, he added.
An inconclusive election could prove equally restrictive.
If neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition secured enough support to form a stable government, Israel could face a political crisis and another election, a process Sabra said could take three to four months.
The government's powers would also face certain restrictions during that period.
Against that backdrop, Sabra suggested that increased Israeli weapons shipments to Sweida's militias could be designed to prepare them for either outcome, ensuring they had enough arms and ammunition to last through months of political uncertainty.
He said Israeli weapons deliveries to the militias had risen markedly over the past week.