According to Sergey Lukyanov, chair of the board of directors at Freedom Finance Global PLC, Kazakhstan has launched a prediction market and is seeing its first deals. So far, these are rather experimental, as not all clients have access to the instrument, Lukyanov said during an interview at the Astana Finance Days 2026 forum last month.
As he noted, the new financial tool, introduced by international trading platform ITS, has already drawn attention from potential partners.
«A lot of people approached us after the presentation — they were interested in partners who want to get involved and so on. A significant number of trades were executed on the first day, though they remain in the testing phase, and not all clients have access to them yet,» Lukyanov said.
He believes the prediction market could become as popular as the cryptocurrency market in the long run.
How to make money on predictions
The prediction market lets investors trade contracts whose value depends on whether a specific event occurs. For example, market participants can forecast central bank interest rate decisions or changes in financial asset values.
Unlike buying stocks, in this scenario investors buy a contract based on a specific event outcome.
ITS launched its Prediction Market on Sept. 8 as part of the ITS Ideas conference held during Astana Finance Days. The initial instruments consisted of four event-based options linked to the price of Bitcoin, the asset with the ticker SPCX, the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate.
Specifically, one contract lets investors bet on whether the National Bank’s base rate will exceed 16.75%, while another bets on whether the upper limit of the Federal Reserve’s target rate range will rise above 3.75%.
These options cost between $0.01 and $0.99. If the prediction proves correct, the contract settles at $1, and at $0 if it’s incorrect. The contract can also be sold to another market participant before the settlement date. Thus, an investor can profit by accurately predicting an event or lose their invested capital if the prediction proves wrong.
Why the regulator moved to authorize the new instrument
Lukyanov welcomed the Astana Financial Services Authority’s (AFSA) decision to authorize the launch of Prediction Market, saying it will expand the potential of Kazakhstan’s financial market and increase the Astana International Financial Centre’s (AIFC) appeal to international participants.
Trading in event-based options takes place within the FinTech Lab — a special regulatory regime established by AFSA. This regime allows testing innovative financial products under controlled conditions. Notably, the regulator’s approved list of events is limited to financial and economic indicators.
Kazakhstani market and global competitors
Lukyanov cited the U.S.-based platforms Kalshi and Polymarket — where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of various events — as international examples of how these markets work.
He noted that prediction markets have evolved from experimental financial instruments into major trading platforms that attract interest from professional investors.
«This is why this instrument has become quite popular,» Lukyanov pointed out, discussing the use of event-based contracts for financial risk management.
He is confident that similar instruments could see widespread adoption in Kazakhstan in the future.
At the same time, the launch of the prediction market on ITS is currently proceeding under the special regulatory regime. As a result, the instrument’s accessibility to investors and the range of permitted events remain limited.