Alberta referendum: Separation draws rural support while cities pivot to Canada consensus

Option 2 on Question 10 in Monday’s Alberta referendum was far more supported in rural areas of the province, drew slim majority support in just two ridings, and failed to draw significant support in areas where it has in the past or were represented by a sympathetic MLA.

Vote counting continued into Thursday and while the final numbers may yet change slightly, Option 1 calling for Alberta to remain a part of Canada will gather about three-quarters of all votes.

Option 2 called for the province to begin the process of holding a second, binding referendum on separation.

Elections Alberta is reporting the results through the 87-seat electoral map used in the 2023 provincial election.

Here’s what those numbers show, as of early Thursday, about who supported separatism (and didn’t) as well as where.

A look at a map showing the results make clear that Option 2 was most popular in rural ridings, generally in the northwestern, central, and southern part of the province.

Those include the only two ridings in which a majority voted in favour of Option 2: Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre (51.1 per cent) and Central Peace-Notley (50.4 per cent).

Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre is represented by Finance Minister Jason Nixon while Forestry and Parks Minister Todd Loewen is the MLA for Central Peace-Notley.

Loewen’s office told Postmedia in a statement that he recognized the vote was a “deeply personal decision” and that not everyone got the result they wanted.

“A majority of Alberta voters have chosen for Alberta to remain part of Canada, but that doesn’t mean the frustrations and concerns that brought us to this point have disappeared,” it reads.

“Now is the time to come together and build on Alberta’s momentum.”

Nixon’s office did not respond to a request for comment before press time.

Grande Prairie-Wapiti (48.9 per cent), Drumheller-Stettler (48.7 per cent), and Taber-Warner (46.3 per cent) round out the top five ridings supporting Option 2.

Conversely, urban ridings in the province’s two major cities showed the strongest opposition to Option 2.

Official Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi’s riding of Edmonton-Strathcona led all ridings in support for Option 1 with 90.4 per cent.

Calgary-Bhullar-McCall (89.3 per cent), Edmonton-City Centre (89.0 per cent), Edmonton-Riverview (88.2 per cent), and Calgary-Mountain View (88.0 per cent) made up the rest of the top five opponents.

Premier Danielle Smith was accused throughout the referendum campaign of playing to the separatists in her governing United Conservative Party’s (UCP) base, though Smith herself publicly expressed her support for Option 1.

Her riding of Brooks-Medicine Hat backed the latter view, voting nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) for Option 1 versus just 36.8 per cent for Option 2.

The only other party leader in the legislature, the Alberta Tory Party’s Peter Guthrie, saw more pronounced opposition in his riding of Airdrie-Cochrane where over 71 per cent support Option 1 compared to nearly 29 per cent who voted for Option 2.

Government MLAs were reluctant to share how they would vote during the campaign, with Postmedia emailing all 47 of them but only receiving general responses from cabinet ministers, and none from backbenchers.

One of those MLAs, Red Deer-South’s Jason Stephan has publicly said he has voted for Option 2, though his riding delivered just 29 per cent support for that in referendum votes. Stephan announced Monday night he would not be running again.

Transportation Minister Devin Dreeshen has repeatedly declined to say how he would vote on Question 10, though his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake constituents voted 57 per cent in favour of Option 1.

The former riding of Olds-Didsbury elected Alberta’s first separatist MLA in a 1982 byelection, but the riding’s current version returned 55 per cent support for remaining in Canada.

Some separatists have challenged Smith’s future as party head, and called for the required 22 UCP constituency associations to pass motions calling for a leadership review.

So far, two of those have done so: Highwood and Calgary-Buffalo.

The former, represented by Affordability and Utilities Minister RJ Sigurdson, returned two-thirds support for Option 1 on Question 10. Calgary-Buffalo is represented by a New Democrat MLA and returned overwhelming support for Option 1 amounting to nearly 86 per cent.

In Calgary, support for Option 2 was highest in the southeastern parts of the city. Support was most prominent in Calgary-South East (23 per cent), Calgary-Shaw (22 per cent), Calgary-Hays (22 per cent), Calgary-Lougheed (21 per cent), and Calgary-East (21 per cent).

Apart from Calgary-McCall which has the second highest level of support in the province, Option 1 also drew 85 per cent or more in six other Calgary ridings.

Across all ridings 82 per cent of votes were for Option 1 and 18 per cent for Option 2.

Edmonton showed an even stronger preference for Option 1, with more than 85 per cent of votes supporting remaining in Canada, with just under 15 per cent of city votes cast for Option 2.

Support for pursuing a referendum was highest in the northeast riding of Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview with just under 18 per cent of votes cast for Option 2.

Slightly less support was also found in Edmonton-Mill Woods, Edmonton-Manning. Edmonton-South West, and Edmonton-West Henday which all returned support of between 17 and 18 per cent for Option 2.

Ten city ridings had 85 per cent or more for Option 1, led by Edmonton-Strathcona but also including Edmonton-City Centre, Edmonton-Riverview, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Rutherford, Edmonton-Whitemud, Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, Edmonton-North West, and Edmonton-Meadows.