In Arkansas, Democrats see an opening at the edge of the competitive midterms map

HOPE, Ark. — For Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, the most important political label she wears isn't that she's a Democrat. Or that she's not a Republican. Instead, it's that she is an Arkansan.

As a lunchtime crowd ate at Tailgater's Burger Company Friday, Shoffner decried what she called a historically unproductive Congress driven by extreme voices in each party and pitched herself to receptive — if skeptical — voters as a candidate who would better serve their needs.

Arkansas is one of the most conservative states in the country, with nearly two out of three voters supporting President Trump in 2024 and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton in 2020.

But in the final days of the 2026 midterm election, Shoffner and other Arkansas Democrats are crisscrossing the state with a message that seeks to capitalize on the Trump administration's unpopularity, stubbornly high prices and anti-incumbency vibes.

"We're the sleeper race," Shoffner told NPR. "I mean, we're the race that no one's noticed and that no one is going to see coming."

Republicans have taken some notice, pre-emptively pouring millions of dollars into the Senate race, the Little Rock-based 2nd Congressional District and robust get-out-the vote efforts to try and stem the rising tide of dissatisfaction with the party.

But even in a midterm cycle where Senate races in states like Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are viewed as tossups, and where the landscape of potentially competitive House races stretches deep into conservative territory, Arkansas seems a bridge too far for election forecasters.

Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District is considered "Likely Republican," according to the Cook Political Report, and its Senate race is "Solid Republican."

Arkansas First

At an outdoor coffee shop in Arkadelphia, Vanilla Hannah said she was there to support Shoffner and talk about her own reelection bid to be a local justice of the peace. She said it's possible that Arkansas could elect Democrats this year because the crop of candidates seems willing to work with people to meet their needs — and there are a lot of them.

"When it comes down to basic needs or whatever, the 'D' or the 'R' after your name don't mean a thing, because we're all suffering and all having the same issues and everybody's ready for a change," she said. "And running for an election is not just running specifically on the Democratic policies or the Republican or the libertarians or whatever. It's just what you believe in, and it seems like more and more people are having a common belief now."

Later, Shoffner visited a small family farm in nearby Bierne where several members of the Hatley family cooked sorghum to make syrup and talked about why they were supporting her campaign.

Shoffner is a multigenerational farmer who decided to shut down her family's operation in 2025, citing financial headwinds from rising input costs and Trump administration tariff and trade policies. That in turn inspired her Senate run and influenced much of her campaign's focus.

Sliding behind the wheel of a side-by-side utility vehicle, Shoffner takes off across the property and recounts her life story that led her away from the farm, into nonprofit work and back home when her dad got sick.

She doesn't buy the argument that her chances are low to win.

"This race isn't about Democrats or Republicans or independents or any of that," she said. "This isn't some kind of weird political alignment, this is a values alignment. This is reorienting representation in Arkansas based on common sense, based on compassion and based on showing up."

She said national Republicans — and Democrats — have made the mistake of ignoring the needs of Arkansas residents, especially with agriculture and trade policies.

"I come from a place, a community, that died in my lifetime," she said. "I was the last one left and I felt left behind. I felt like no one was really talking to me or talking about me. I felt like folks were making decisions about me, but without me, and ultimately they were rewriting the rules."

Now, with record diesel prices, the war in Iran and tariffs, Shoffner said she believes that Arkansas voters of all stripes want something different. She's also glad that the race hasn't seen an influx of outside air support from national Democratic groups.

"I don't need them, I really don't," she said. "This is an Arkansas First campaign, and I'm an Arkansan, and I want to talk directly to Arkansans, and I want them to know that when I go to D.C., the only letters that will mean anything next to my name are the "A" and the "R."

'Folks are hurting'

On the flip side, Chris Jones has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as one of dozens of "Red to Blue" flip targets.

At an outdoor jazz night held at a brewery in Little Rock, Jones worked the crowd between visits to polling sites and a high school football homecoming game on a campaign that has seen millions of dollars in outside spending by Republicans.

"They understand that people are in pain," he said. "Folks are hurting. They can't afford gas. They can't afford groceries. And our campaign has always been about affordability and accountability for all. So prices are way too high."

Jones also ran for governor against Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders in 2022 and lost, so he started off with higher name recognition as a serious challenger to Rep. French Hill.

He knows it's a tall task, even in a national environment more favorable to Democrats. Hill is a longtime incumbent whose district only became more conservative after the last Census-led redistricting in 2021.

But he also knows that Democrats, Republicans and independent voters alike are open to looking for something other than the current leadership.

"Here's what's so fascinating: a lot of folks here voted for the president and this administration because they wanted lower prices, they wanted to end foreign wars, and they wanted to end corruption, particularly with the Epstein files," he said. "None of that has happened, so they're super frustrated."

Like many states that have seen the potential for close races next week, Arkansas has a longer history of single-party control that has led to anger and frustration at the status quo and incumbency in a way that extends beyond typical partisan labels or voting history.

"One of the things that we forget, because there's so much that comes out of this administration: It wasn't but 15 years ago that the entire federal delegation of Arkansas was Democrat," he said. "So it's not that long ago. The reason they got in office was because of the conditions that existed, the economic anxiety and pain that people feel — and folks feeling like what they wanted to happen out of Washington was not happening. We're in that same place now."

In addition to the DCCC support, Jones has had campaign visits from former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear have both endorsed his run. And he's heard from people who don't normally support Democrats saying they'll back his campaign.

"Folks are literally hurting, and it's to the point where they're saying, 'my life is so bad that I don't care about party anymore'," he said.

Black voter turnout surges

Another factor working in Democrats' favor this election cycle is a surge in Black turnout following a Supreme Court decision that weakened part of the Voting Rights Act.

Multiple states across the South rushed to redraw House maps to gain a partisan advantage, with many of the new districts crafted in a way that minimized Black voting power. Arkansas lawmakers did not redraw their maps — the state has an entirely Republican congressional delegation — but after the 2020 Census did split Little Rock up in a manner that made Hill's district more Republican.

In primaries following the ruling, and early voting this month ahead of the midterms, there has been sustained higher Black turnout in states like South Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana in ways that could affect the outcome in key races across the region.

"I think part of it is that folks realized that there was an imminent threat to their right to vote," Jones said. "And people realized across the country that if we don't show up now, and Black folks realize if we don't speak up now, then our ability to do it later might not be there."

Marcus Hatley, one of the people who met with Shoffner at his family farm, said the increased turnout seemed like a "course correction."

"People are dissatisfied with the way that that happened, and some are crossing sides and voting in a different direction," he said. "And a lot of it has to do with removing, in some of those states, the ability for people of color to have equal representation in their districts. So it looks like to me there's going to be a course correction. I could be wrong, but I believe there's going to be a change."