Rubio in India: What the US secretary’s itinerary signals

The American diplomat’s planned visit to a refinery comes amid a global diesel shortage and President Trump’s sanctions waiver on Russian oil

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Mumbai on Tuesday and visit a major oil refinery in western India the next day as he makes his second visit to the country this year. 

Washington’s top diplomat is leaving New Delhi out of his itinerary and is focusing instead on diesel supplies and business deals as high fuel prices weigh on the prospects of US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Rubio is scheduled to visit the Jamnagar refining complex of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries on Wednesday, where he is expected to meet with its billionaire owner Mukesh Ambani.

The Trump administration is emphasizing business deals over policy and politics as American voters focus on the economy, experts told CNBC.

Why Jamnagar has become important for US

Reliance, India’s largest private company, operates the world’s biggest single-site refining complex at Jamnagar – in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Gujarat state – which is capable of processing around 1.4 million barrels of crude a day.

The facility’s importance as a major supplier of refined fuels globally has increased as disruptions in the Middle East and Russia squeeze diesel supplies, with ripple effects on US markets. 

US diesel prices averaged $6.29 a gallon in September, according to the Energy Information Administration. The International Energy Agency has warned that global shortages could persist into 2027.

Reliance has cranked up increased exports amid the crunch. Its diesel shipments to Europe reached around 4-5 million barrels in July, a ten-month high, while exports to Brazil also rose, Reuters reported.

Any additional Indian diesel flowing to global markets would help ease diesel prices and explain Rubio’s trip to Jamnagar. 

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Reliance, long a major buyer of Russian crude, has increasingly turned to Venezuela after receiving US authorization to purchase oil directly from the South American country earlier this year.

Jamnagar, unlike many other refineries in India, can process Venezuela’s heavy crude. Venezuelan deliveries scheduled for India could more than double to around 465,000 barrels a day in October, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. All of those listed Sikka, the port serving Jamnagar, as their destination, Bloomberg reported. 

Trump has also waived key sanctions and tariff provisions under a new law targeting the Russian energy trade, potentially making more Russian crude available to refiners. Rubio said that Washington was assessing the economic impact of further restrictions, including on countries dependent on Russian oil such as India.

Ambani has invested in Trump’s dream

Rubio’s meeting with Ambani is significant for another reason. 

Reliance is backing a proposed refinery in Brownsville, Texas, designed to process American shale oil. The planned facility would handle 168,000 barrels a day, with the company agreeing to purchase the output under a 20-year arrangement, Reuters reported.

The developer has described it as the first new US refinery in half a century. It will be designed designed for American shale oil. The full investment and construction costs remain undisclosed.

The refinery is key to bringing to the US consumer the benefits of Trump’s efforts – under the political slogan “drill, baby, drill” – to increase domestic fossil fuel production.

The project also adds another strand to the economic ties between New Delhi and Washington, even as both countries inch toward closing a bilateral trade deal following months of negotiations. 

The deal’s first phase has entered legal drafting, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said last week.

Washington and New Delhi are “very close” to finalizing the deal, Rubio said Monday, adding that trade negotiations were among the factors considered in Washington’s sanctions decisions.

Trillionaire vs. billionaire

Rubio’s expected meeting with Ambani comes on the heels of Elon Musk’s public outbursts attributing delays to the launch of his Starlink satellite internet service in India to the Indian billionaire.

Musk, who has Trump’s ears, accused powerful business interests of obstructing Starlink’s entry and even blamed Ambani for the delay, referring to him as “Prime Minister Ambani” in a X post.

Reliance, whose telecommunications business Jio serves more than 530 million customers in India, has denied blocking competition. It has welcomed Starlink and pointed out that its own satellite venture was awaiting New Delhi’s security clearance.

India has also denied favoring domestic companies in the approval process. Musk subsequently acknowledged Reliance’s response, saying, “Much appreciated.”

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Rubio cannot avoid politics

Rubio’s decision to hold talks in Mumbai rather than New Delhi has drawn criticism from India’s opposition Congress party.

Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi snarked that Rubio “summoned his employee to Mumbai,” while senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh questioned why the American ambassador announced details of Jaishankar’s schedule.

In the US, six Democratic lawmakers urged Rubio to raise concerns over the detention of anti-government protesters in New Delhi and the alleged use of excessive force. Their October 16 letter also sought an investigation into reports that Indian diplomatic missions monitored protesters in the US.

Meetings with foreign dignitaries outside the capital are not unusual, India’s Foreign Ministry pointed out, citing previous engagements in several cities. It confirmed that Rubio and Jaishankar would discuss energy, trade, investment, defense, and emerging technologies.

The Trump administration prioritizes business over politics, and it may well be that the global energy situation – and a billionaire – have placed New Delhi in a sweet spot to benefit from that.