Texas quarterback Arch Manning entered the 2026 college football season as the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 overall selection in the 2027 NFL Draft. Things have not gone according to plan. In fact, Manning's NFL Draft fate is possibly on the line versus Ole Miss on Saturday.
Manning improved drastically down the stretch of the 2025 season, his first as a starter. Scouts wanted to see the athletic passer make consistent progress this campaign. That has not happened.
Consecutive defeats to Oklahoma and Florida have exposed Manning's weaknesses. If he doesn't drastically improve versus Ole Miss, he may not enter the 2027 NFL Draft. Manning could return to college football for another season of development if things continue going sideways.
Texas QB Arch Manning Could Skip the 2027 NFL Draft
Manning's campaign began in impressive fashion. The Louisiana native was excellent in the debut victory over Texas State, but his real first test arrived in Week 2 versus Ohio State. Manning led a historic comeback victory over the Buckeyes that confirmed his status as the early-season favorite for No. 1 overall.
He's regressed weekly ever since. The Longhorns dominated UTSA, but Manning struggled with accuracy, only completing 50% of his passing attempts. Texas beat Tennessee the following weekend, but Manning had 201 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception.
Then the disasters versus Oklahoma and Florida happened. Manning threw two fourth-quarter interceptions, including a pick-six, to help Texas lose the Red River Shootout. The following week, he was ineffective versus the Gators, completing 14 passes for 173 yards in another 27-24 loss in which he committed a turnover on his final offensive snap for a second consecutive week.
Arch Manning Is Struggling With the Basic Fundamentals of Playing Quarterback
Manning's development appears stalled. He's not playing with any sense of decisiveness. He hasn't shown a natural ability to balance aggression with understanding when to take his checkdown. Manning's processing clock has been totally out of whack.
Manning has continued to make occasional splash plays, but those moments are often being overshadowed by fits of inconsistency that include poor decision-making and missing elementary passing attempts. Accuracy and ball placement have been erratic. Manning also hasn't protected the football, with five interceptions in six appearances.
What's absolutely alarming is that Manning is a fourth-year quarterback and second-year starter. Scouts shouldn't be questioning his decision-making and processing ability. Unfortunately, that's exactly what's happening.
If Texas Benches Arch Manning, His 2027 NFL Draft Chances Are Over
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian admitted the team was evaluating "everything" following the Florida loss. Earlier this week, it was reported by Pete Thamel that Texas was expected to increase the first-team reps taken by redshirt freshman quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. in practice. That strongly indicates Sarkisian is considering benching Manning if things continue going haywire.
If Manning is actually benched, we can probably delay his scouting evaluation for another year. He'd almost certainly forego declaring for the 2027 NFL Draft. Instead, Manning would likely return to college football in 2027 to prepare for the 2028 NFL Draft, and he'd likely enter the transfer portal to depart Texas. NIL means he'd have lucrative opportunities across various potential suitors.
Nothing has been decided yet. Texas' upcoming four-game stretch includes dates with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU. It'll be decisive not only to Manning's fate, but probably to Sarkisian's as well. It starts with this weekend's game versus the Rebels, who ironically possess a lengthy history with the Manning family with Archie’s and Eli’s numbers retired by the program.
Manning's NFL Draft fate hangs in the balance, and his performance versus Ole Miss could decide where this story is headed.
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