Nigeria inflation falls to 14.63% as food prices retreat, core pressures rise

Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 14.63 percent in September as food prices declined sharply, offering some relief after months of elevated price pressures. But the improvement was uneven. While monthly headline inflation nearly stalled, core inflation accelerated, raising questions about how broadly price pressures are easing across the economy.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Thursday that headline inflation declined from 15.39 percent in August to 14.63 percent in September, a fall of 0.76 percentage points. The rate was 6.35 percentage points below the 20.98 percent recorded in September 2025. The result was 0.87 percentage points below BusinessDay’s pre-release forecast of 15.5 percent, which had anticipated an increase rather than the decline reported by the NBS.

The sharper signal came from monthly inflation. The rate slowed to 0.06 percent in September from 0.71 percent in August, indicating that average consumer prices rose only marginally during the month. The NBS said “the rate of increase in the average price level was lower” than in August.

That distinction matters. A lower annual inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly than they did a year earlier, not that the cost of living has returned to its previous level. The Consumer Price Index rose slightly to 146.38 in September from 146.30 in August, confirming that the overall price level edged higher despite the slowdown in inflation.

Food prices drive the slowdown

Food prices provided the clearest relief. Annual food inflation stood at 19.59 percent in September, below the 20.16 percent recorded in September 2025. More strikingly, monthly food inflation fell to -1.55 percent from 1.02 percent in August, indicating an actual decline in the food-price index during the month.

The NBS attributed the decrease to lower prices for several items, including local short-grain rice, guinea corn flour, eggs, fresh onions, palm oil, Irish potatoes, okra, tomatoes and plantain.

The decline is significant because food absorbs a large share of household budgets, particularly among lower-income Nigerians. A sustained fall in food prices could ease pressure on household finances even if transport, housing and other expenses remain high.

But one month of falling food prices does not guarantee lasting relief. Harvest cycles, insecurity in farming areas, transport costs, storage limitations and distribution expenses can all influence prices. The crucial question is whether September marks the beginning of a sustained decline or a temporary reversal.

The longer-term figures show both progress and the scale of the challenge. Average annual food inflation for the 12 months ending September stood at 15.72 percent, down from 28.37 percent a year earlier. This signals a substantial slowdown in food-price increases, but not a return to the prices households faced before the inflation surge.

Core inflation clouds the outlook

Core inflation presents a more complicated picture. The measure, which excludes farm produce and energy, fell to 12.95 percent year on year in September from 22.11 percent a year earlier. Yet its monthly rate rose to 1.11 percent from -0.06 percent in August.

The contrast reveals two different trends. Compared with a year earlier, underlying inflation has moderated considerably. But the latest monthly reading shows that prices within the core basket rose faster in September than in August.

This matters because food-price declines can pull down headline inflation even while price pressures elsewhere remain. The core figure does not, on its own, establish what caused the monthly acceleration, but it cautions against interpreting the lower headline rate as evidence that inflationary pressures have been fully contained.

The geographic breakdown also shows that the slowdown was uneven. Urban inflation stood at 15.64 percent year on year, compared with 12.46 percent in rural areas. On a monthly basis, urban inflation accelerated to 0.53 percent from 0.28 percent in August, while rural inflation fell to -0.89 percent from 1.79 percent.

The divergence suggests that the national average conceals different price experiences. Rural consumers benefited from a monthly decline in the rural index, while prices in urban areas continued to rise. The figures do not establish the precise causes of that gap, but they show why a single national rate cannot fully describe the pressures facing every household.

For policymakers, September’s report offers evidence of continued annual disinflation, led by food prices, alongside a warning from monthly core inflation. The two readings warrant different interpretations: the annual figures show progress against last year’s price increases, while the monthly figures provide a more immediate indication of how prices are moving.

For households, however, the test is simpler. Lower inflation becomes meaningful relief only when essential goods and services become more affordable relative to incomes. September’s food-price decline is encouraging, but whether it lasts, and whether monthly core inflation moderates, will determine how durable the improvement proves to be.