The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier. The agency attributed the rise mostly to transport disruptions and weather concerns that constrained supplies.
The reading is the highest since November 2022, according to Reuters.
"We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities," FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said. "If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food and energy import dependent countries."
The FAO cereal price index rose 5.1% from August and averaged 17.2% above its September 2025 level. Wheat prices rose 6.3% on logistical constraints in the Black Sea region and dry weather in parts of North America ahead of sowing. Maize prices rose 5.6% on yield concerns in the United States, reduced export availability in Brazil and Black Sea trade disruptions.
The sugar index rose 6.1% on expectations of tighter 2026/27 supplies, and the vegetable oil index rose 0.9%. The meat index fell 1.1% and the dairy index dipped 0.1%.
FAO forecasts 2026 global cereal production will fall 2.1% from 2025 to 2,979 million tonnes. It expects world cereal trade to decline 3.5% to 505.8 million tonnes, with wheat and maize exports constrained by Black Sea shipping routes and limited alternative transport capacity. The agency puts the stocks-to-use ratio for 2026/27 at 31.7%, down from 32.0% the previous season.
Torero told Reuters the effects could build into next year. "We will see a bigger impact towards the end of the year, at the beginning of next year and potentially throughout next year," he said. He added that the cushions built up from past inventories and strong crops are "starting to come under pressure."
Price increases are already visible in several countries, according to Reuters. Rice prices in Indonesia and sugar prices in India have reached record highs. Unsubsidised bread in Egypt now sells for roughly 5 pounds per large loaf, versus 4 pounds back in July. Reuters also reported that shipping costs on certain lanes, among them the Black Sea to Southeast Asia run, are up roughly 50%.
Wheat has gained over 30% so far in 2026, and rice in the main Asian exporting nations has climbed between 10% and 13%, according to Reuters.
The World Bank found that among the 150 nations it reviewed, food costs rose faster than overall inflation in 22% of them during the September quarter, against 14% the quarter before, according to Reuters.
Demand could also rise. Key importers across the Middle East and Africa that paused purchases after bumper domestic harvests now have to come back to global markets, according to Reuters. "In a couple of months, there could be a significant new wave of demand as importers return to the market," Alexander Karavaytsev, a senior economist at the International Grains Council in London, told Reuters.