Dogecoin price slips below $0.081: Can whale buying fuel a rebound?

Dogecoin price has fallen roughly 7.6% on the weekly chart to around $0.0802, slipping below an analyst’s $0.081 support level despite reported whale purchases of 600 million DOGE.

TradingView’s Binance DOGE/USDT weekly chart showed a price of $0.08020 on Oct. 17, against a weekly opening price of $0.08678 and a low of $0.07770.

Dogecoin price falls below the analyst’s $0.081 reference

In an Oct. 16 analysis, crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified three reasons for a potential Dogecoin recovery: a daily technical buy signal, a concentration of coins acquired near $0.081, and purchases by large holders.

His daily chart showed a TD Sequential buy signal near that price. The indicator uses sequences of price movements to identify potential exhaustion in a trend, although the signal itself does not establish that a recovery has started.

2/6 First, the TD Sequential has flashed a buy signal on $DOGE daily chart near $0.081.

The indicator has marked potential turning points before for Dogecoin. This signal is especially interesting because of where it appeared. pic.twitter.com/od07wV3lwg

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 16, 2026

The analyst’s assessment centered on whether buyers could defend the same area where on-chain data showed a large concentration of previously traded coins.

“The bullish thesis comes down to $0.081: a daily buy signal, a major cost-basis zone, and whale accumulation are converging there,” Martinez wrote.

By the Oct. 17 TradingView snapshot, DOGE was trading slightly below that reference. The daily Binance chart showed $0.08025, with a session high of $0.08094 and a low of $0.07982.

Earlier signs of possible selling exhaustion had appeared during the week. As crypto.news previously reported, DOGE was among four altcoins displaying technical buy signals on Oct. 15, when the token traded near $0.07977. That report placed Martinez’s conditional recovery levels at $0.087 and $0.094.

Whale purchases accompany a large cost-basis cluster

Using a Glassnode UTXO Realized Price Distribution chart, Martinez said roughly 36 billion DOGE had previously traded around $0.081. The distribution groups coins by the price at which they last moved on-chain.

His post qualified the support argument:

“So many tokens changing hands at this price makes it a key level to watch, though it does not guarantee buyers will defend it.”

For large-holder activity, the analyst cited Santiment data showing holdings rising from approximately 55.6 billion DOGE toward 56.2 billion between Oct. 12 and Oct. 16. He described the change as purchases of about 600 million tokens.

At the $0.08025 daily-chart price, that quantity has a quoted value of approximately $48.2 million. The calculation values the reported balance change at one reference price; it does not establish how much holders paid for the coins.

Martinez’s longer-range scenario remained conditional on a $0.081 holding and DOGE rebounding. He identified $0.16–$0.17 as a potential profit-taking area, citing cost-basis concentrations of roughly 12 billion DOGE near $0.16 and another 14 billion near $0.17.

Measured from $0.08025, those prices require gains of approximately 99% and 112%, respectively. The analyst presented them as a possible destination after a recovery, without specifying when either price might be reached.

Daily Bollinger Bands show price near the lower boundary

On TradingView’s daily chart, DOGE traded below the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at $0.08847. The upper band stood at $0.09958, while the lower boundary was $0.07736.

The latest price sat approximately 9.3% below the midpoint and 3.7% above the lower band. TradingView’s Awesome Oscillator reading was negative at approximately minus 0.00803, with the latest histogram bars below zero.

The weekly chart placed DOGE below each of its displayed simple moving averages. The 20-week average stood at $0.08163, followed by the 50-week at $0.10188, the 100-week at $0.17248, and the 200-week at $0.13765. Weekly Chaikin Money Flow read minus 0.06.

From the $0.08025 daily snapshot, reaching Martinez’s earlier $0.087 recovery level would require a gain of approximately 8.4%; reaching $0.094 would require 17.1%. Both prices sit above the daily Bollinger midpoint, while the weekly 50-period average remains above them at $0.10188. Each comparison uses the same reference price, keeping the shorter recovery scenarios separate from the analyst’s more distant $0.16–$0.17 zone.

The decline follows a substantially different September setup. DOGE had returned to $0.10 after a 25% weekly rally by Sep. 23. Comparing that round reference with the latest $0.08025 snapshot puts the subsequent retreat close to 19.8%.

Liquidation concentrations sit above and below $0.080

CoinGlass’s three-day liquidation heatmap, captured on Oct. 17, showed especially bright bands around $0.0844 above the market and $0.0773 below it. Other visible concentrations appeared around $0.083–$0.0836 and $0.078–$0.079.

The heatmap’s price path showed DOGE falling from above $0.084 on Oct. 14, recovering toward $0.0825 on Oct. 16, and returning toward $0.080 by the end of the displayed period. Its colored bands represent modeled liquidation exposure, not a record of completed liquidations at every highlighted price.

In the U.S. fund market, an October price assessment published Oct. 5 described Bitwise’s planned Dogecoin fund closure. Citing an SEC notice, the report said the fund expected to convert its DOGE holdings to cash on Oct. 14 and distribute proceeds around Oct. 22.