MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia faces renewed fears of political instability after former intelligence chief Abdullahi Mohamed Ali Sanbalolshe said his Hawadle clan intends to establish a new regional administration in Hiran, raising the prospect of another confrontation with the federal government and intensifying concerns about the country’s fragile political order.
In a recent interview with Gaylan Media, Sanbalolshe said the clan had decided to pursue a separate regional administration after being denied the opportunity to secure the presidency of Hirshabelle state under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
His remarks went beyond demands for political representation, suggesting that the proposed initiative could develop into an armed resistance movement against the government in Mogadishu.
Sanbalolshe warned that Somalia was approaching a dangerous turning point, predicting a major war and arguing that the current political order was weakening. He said his clan wanted to secure an influential position in whatever political system emerged from the turmoil.
The comments come amid separate warnings from Somali counterterrorism official Abdirahman Turyare, who recently alleged that plans were being developed to establish armed rebellions in Hiran and Middle Shabelle, potentially drawing the two regions into a wider confrontation with federal authorities.
Sanbalolshe raises prospect of armed rebellion
Sanbalolshe indicated that his movement would be prepared to take significant risks to remove Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government, suggesting that it would seek assistance from any party willing to support that objective.
Asked whether his group would cooperate with Al-Shabaab, the Islamist militant organization fighting the Somali government, Sanbalolshe did not rule out the possibility.
His remarks raise the prospect of a particularly volatile situation in which opponents of the federal government might consider tactical cooperation with a militant organization responsible for years of attacks against Somali security forces and officials.
However, the interview account does not establish that Sanbalolshe or his associates have reached an agreement with Al-Shabaab, nor does it independently confirm that a coordinated armed campaign is underway.
Sanbalolshe also said his movement would do worse than Southwest State leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, who has faced accusations of coordinating with Al-Shabaab during clashes with federal security forces in Baidoa and other major towns in Bay region.
Sanbalolshe’s comparison nevertheless underscores the severity of the confrontation he appears to envisage if the dispute over regional power escalates into armed conflict.
UAE meetings raise questions about regional involvement
Sanbalolshe said he had recently travelled to the United Arab Emirates, where he met Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Irro; Puntland leader Said Abdullahi Deni; and Jubaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam, widely known as Ahmed Madobe.
According to Sanbalolshe’s account, he urged the leaders to support an armed rebellion against the federal government in the Hiran region.
It remains unclear whether any of the leaders agreed to his proposal or whether the reported meetings resulted in concrete political or military commitments.
The reported outreach is significant because Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland occupy distinct positions in Somalia’s contested political landscape. Any involvement by their leaders in a campaign against the federal government could deepen existing divisions between Mogadishu and regional authorities.
Sanbalolshe also said the proposed movement would seek assistance from neighbouring Ethiopia, potentially extending the dispute beyond Somalia’s domestic political arena.
The reported discussions and proposed external support have not been independently verified. No conclusion can be drawn from Sanbalolshe’s statements alone about the involvement of foreign governments or regional leaders in plans for an armed rebellion.
Nevertheless, the prospect of outside support for a new anti-government movement could complicate efforts to contain tensions and maintain cooperation among Somalia’s political and security institutions.
Counterterrorism official warns of two planned rebellions
Sanbalolshe’s comments come just days after Somali counterterrorism official Abdirahman Turyare warned that plans were being developed to establish two armed rebellions in Hiran and Middle Shabelle.
Turyare alleged that the proposed movements were being financed by the United Arab Emirates and intended to cooperate with Al-Shabaab in a campaign against the federal government.
He urged the authorities to intervene as early as possible to prevent the alleged plans from materialising.
The timing of the two sets of remarks is likely to intensify scrutiny of the security situation in central Somalia.
It is also unclear whether the alleged rebellions described by Turyare are directly connected to the initiative outlined by Sanbalolshe, or whether the two statements refer to the same organized effort.
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