The Ravens have a number one problem with No. 1 wide receivers.
Even by the lowest of standards in terms of what a “No. 1 WR” really is they have it bad. Rookie Carnell Tate (Titans) was at his best against them and true proven go-to guys like Drake London (Falcons) and George Pickens (Cowboys) and CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) and Chris Olave (Saints) ate them up. And many of them were relying on a suspect quarterback to get the ball and not Joe Burrow, who leads the NFL in completion percentage and can operate at the highest levels.
And Burrow is never more at his best than when he is feeding his top target, Ja’Marr Chase, and Chase has never been better throughout his career than when he faces the Ravens. And this edition of Baltimore’s secondary is having all kinds of issues in the second half of games and on third down and especially making any sort of dynamic plays on the football. And they can’t slow down the main cogs in any functional passing attack.
So, yeah, Sunday is going to be a quite a challenge for rookie head coach Jesse Minter, who has done a fine enough job overall but has been getting worked as a defensive coordinator in the second half of games, and who might just need his cornerback-obsessed general manager to go try to find him one before the trade deadline because his corners and safeties are getting picked apart in coverage on third-and-long when the opposition is desperate to make a play downfield (just happened again in Cleveland Sunday).
They best come correct this weekend hosting the Bengals who are coming off a bye with a QB who usually doesn’t really heat up until mid October.
“It is a work in progress,” Minter said of his defense after Wednesday’s practice. “I do see improvement, and I do appreciate the way the guys are chasing improvement. I think there's just a level that we can get to from a pure confidence and conviction standpoint in what we're doing that you can play things aggressively, that you can anticipate things that are about to happen, that when things happen on the fly, the adjustments and things like that happen in real time.
“We're getting closer and closer to that. So, to the guys' credit, they're working at it. Again, it's six games in. Let's try to keep climbing and keep getting better and better, so that we're at our best as we keep going."
They better a lot closer to their best on Sunday. Chase is uniquely equipped to exploit their weaknesses and the soft spots in this zone defense and he’s been torching these defensive backs his entire career.
Chasing The Ravens Defense Away
In case you haven’t been paying attention to what Chase does to these guys, I’ll refresh your memory. He has 1204 yards in 10 career games, that is the most by any player against any opponent in NFL history over at least 10 games. Let that sink in.
Chase is already fourth all-time in receiving yards against the Ravens, a franchise prided on its defense for a generation, behind only Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward and Chad Ochocinco. Chase already has three games of 190 yards or more against Baltimore, that is the most such games any person has against any team in the history of this league.
“It starts with Burrow,” defensive lineman Calais Campbell said, “he's a general out there. He knows how to check all the right plays and check into the right runs based off how people play them. And you have to give the attention to the receivers. They are the best in the game. Chase is probably No. 1, or arguably the best receiver in the game, and then you have Tee Higgins who's Top 10 at the worst; he's a really elite receiver as well.”
Oh, we are aware.
Changing Role
Chase is being used a little differently this season, as even more of a deep ball guy and little less moving the chains in the slot.
But that could change Sunday given how atrocious the Ravens have been defending the slot (more on that in a minute). His YAC per reception is at just 2.7 this season (5.7/catch in his career), but Chase has his second-best Expected Points Added/Target of his career (0.47) and is over 9 air yards per target (second-best) with elite route depth, too.
The EPA is still up there even though he is getting just seven targets per game thus far because his explosive play rate is soaring (over 18%) and Burrow is going to tight end Mike Gesicki more to keep things moving in the slot.
Ravens corners and safeties do not have an interception on the season (Kyle Hamilton’s came as a linebacker) they only have about a half-dozen pass breakups combined and none of them has had much success against this receiver. Chase is a size speed monster, he can run through defenders like a running back, and with how shaky the Ravens deep safeties have been, just putting a top over him likely won’t be enough.
Slot Slump
Chase has been in the slot less than a quarter of the time this season, but given Baltimore’s film I bet that changes Sunday. As we have been chronicling in depth, young slot corners Keyon Martin and Chandler Rivers, who couldn’t handle Chase’s size and power, both have an opposing passer rating of 119 when thrown on in the slot. Overall, here’s where Baltimore’s slot defense ranks:
Passer Rating: 117.7 (27th) Comp %: 74.1% (26th) Yards: 510 (27th) Yds/Att: 8.8 (23rd)
Gesicki will need attention in the slot, too. Baltimore has faced the fewest passing attempts to TEs in the NFL per game, but is allowing a 121.5 rating when they are targeted (26th). Gesicki in the slot this season has 11 catches on 14 targets at 14.3 yards/catch(!) with three touchdowns.
Baltimore really needs starting QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) back for this game to likely keep pace with the Bengals, but that is anything but a sure thing. Minter better be ready to mix and catch corners and he needs a huge revenge game out of former Bengal pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, because it’s hard to fancy his defensive backs against this group.
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