Braid: Don't be duped into flipping yes-to-Canada vote to future referendum

Voters, please don’t be fooled into voting no to Canada in order to “send Ottawa a message.”

Convincing you to do that is the strategy of failed separatists who are trying to pull victory out of the voting that concludes next Monday.

In this context, sending a message means endorsing a genuine separation referendum at some vague point in the future.

The strategists perceive that separation itself can’t win. In fact, promoting independence tends to backfire.

When did you last see a sign saying: “Vote to separate”?

Not lately.

A Leger poll last week showed a surprise. Federalist voters are more firm in their choice than separatist-leaners.

Ninety-one per cent of federalists say there’s no chance they’ll switch.

With separatist-leaners, the figure drops to 71 per cent.

Cannily, the separatist campaigners hope to keep them on board by making a vote for a future referendum sound like the usual Alberta thing — sending Liberal Ottawa a rocket.

Nearly everybody likes that once in a while.

Yet, as with a real rocket, you never quite know what happens after the fuse is lit. This one might keep rising until the referendum choice hits 50 per cent.

In that case, the UCP would be obliged to hold that full referendum, subjecting Albertans to uncertainty far greater than anything we’ve experienced so far.

Premier Danielle Smith has promised not to move to a referendum if the vote is “yes” to Canada.

She makes no such commitment if the referendum option wins.

The current referendum results aren’t binding on the government, but Smith would blow up her UCP party base if she refused to comply.

Still, a full independence referendum would be highly unlikely for 2027 — an election year.

This menace could hang over the province for two years or more.

That’s what happens if too many Albertans slide away from the stay-in-Canada choice to the referendum option.

For all those reasons, I was surprised to see Ted Morton call for a huge turnout to support the future referendum choice.

Morton is a former finance minister, longtime advocate for Alberta’s interests, and former U of C academic with deep knowledge of federal-provincial affairs.

He’s also been a friendly acquaintance for many years. I respect Morton, but completely disagree with him on this issue.

In an article published in the Herald last week, and reprinted Tuesday on the website Project Confederation, Morton said: “The secession option — short-term pain for long-term gain — is much too risky.

“The short-term pain is certain, huge and expensive, while the long-term gain is possible, but far from certain . . . But the stay option — the status quo — is equally risky. Albertans do not want the next 50 years to be a replica of the past 50 years.

“For the record, I am opposed to both options.”

He then goes on to argue that if current voting is to give Alberta leverage against Ottawa, the “leave vote” will have to be more than 20 per cent.

In fact, he says, it should be in the 30 to 40 per cent range to make Ottawa pay serious attention.

“This will only happen if enough Albertans who oppose separation still vote for Option B — not to separate but to ‘send a message’ — that the status quo must go.”

The reality is that the status quo is shaken up already by historic deals with Ottawa on pipelines and other economic matters.

Morton says critics will point out that there’s a risk of hitting 50 per cent and forcing the big referendum.

He finds no harm in that. “This leaves plenty of time, if necessary, to defeat the separatist option in a second referendum.”

He’s asking federalists not to vote “yes,” but to enable a later referendum to take Alberta out of Canada — and then vote “no” if they’re still federalists.

This is spin on a planetary scale. Don’t be steered into the referendum morass.

Please vote “yes” to Canada.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald