BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 18 October, 1:40 PM ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo, O Tempo, CNN Brasil, Metrópoles
Key Facts
- What happened A driver struck a 67-year-old man at a pro-Lula rally in Belo Horizonte on Saturday 17 October, at about 5:31 p.m. ET (6:31 p.m. Brasília time).
- The arrest Police arrested the driver in flagrante on suspicion of attempted homicide, and he was taken to a Civil Police station.
- The driver’s account He says protesters threw bottles and cans at his car, which he says hit his wife, and that he did not notice hitting the man.
- Why it matters Brazil elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 19.5% (18 October, 1:37 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 80% (Lula: 20% and 21%), as of 18 October, 1:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The driver’s name, his politics and the victim’s condition have not been made public.
A driver ran into a 67-year-old man during a pro-Lula demonstration in Belo Horizonte on Saturday 17 October, and police arrested him on suspicion of attempted homicide. The incident, which Folha de S.Paulo reported on Sunday, came a week before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
Belo Horizonte is the capital of Minas Gerais, one of Brazil’s most populous states. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, in the 25 October vote.
What Police and Witnesses Report
The man was hit at about 6:31 p.m. Brasília time at the corner of Rua da Bahia and Rua Tupinambás in the city centre, Metrópoles reported. The driver of a yellow Volkswagen Up ran a red light, and a municipal guard saw it happen, according to CNN Brasil.
The driver fled without helping the victim and was caught soon afterwards by the Military Police, Metrópoles said. He was arrested in flagrante, meaning caught in the act, on suspicion of attempted homicide, the Minas Gerais Civil Police told UOL, as Folha reported.
The victim was taken to the João XXIII emergency hospital. Metrópoles reported an ankle fracture, while O Tempo spoke of foot injuries, and Folha said his overall condition had not been disclosed.
The Driver’s Account and the Politics
The driver told police that protesters threw water bottles and beer cans at his car and hit his wife, who was in the passenger seat. He said his children, aged 8 and 10, panicked, so he accelerated, and that he did not notice hitting anyone, CNN Brasil reported.
O Tempo said video of the moment is inconclusive about where the objects came from. The driver’s wife told police she was hit in the head and stomach, according to CNN Brasil.
Lawmaker Bella Gonçalves of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), who was at the rally and chairs a human rights committee, said she will ask for an investigation. She called the driver a supporter of former president Jair Bolsonaro in a video, according to Folha, but police have not said what his politics are.
Folha said pro-Lula rallies have been held across the country since the first round on 4 October. The demonstration in Belo Horizonte was a women’s rally called Mulheres com Lula, or Women with Lula.
What It Means for US Readers
Street incidents in the final week can shape how voters and markets read a close race. If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, headlines about campaign security can move prices before the result is known.
For readers following US politics or trade, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. One incident does not predict a result, and nothing in the reports ties it to either campaign.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 80.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 19.5% (18 October, 1:37 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$187.2 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 19.5% (US$187 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · Lula 21%
As of 18 October, 1:40 pm ET (18:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Police have not released the driver’s name, and his political views are not established. His overall condition has not been officially updated.
It is not known who threw objects at the car or whether any were thrown before the man was struck. In the reports reviewed, neither campaign had commented.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened at the pro-Lula rally in Belo Horizonte?
A driver in a yellow Volkswagen Up struck a 67-year-old man during a pro-Lula demonstration on Saturday 17 October at about 5:31 p.m. ET. Police arrested the driver on suspicion of attempted homicide.
Was the driver arrested?
Yes, Minas Gerais police arrested him in flagrante shortly afterwards and took him to a Civil Police station. He was held on suspicion of attempted homicide.
What does the driver say happened?
He says protesters threw water bottles and beer cans at his car and hit his wife, so he accelerated out of fear. He says he did not notice hitting the man.
When is Brazil’s runoff election?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October, one week after this report. The runoff is between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Is the incident linked to either campaign?
Nothing in the reports reviewed shows a link to either campaign. The driver’s identity and politics have not been made public.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 18 October 2026; O Tempo, 18 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 18 October 2026; Metrópoles, 18 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
The Rio Times · Power Map
See who really holds power in Latin America
Click to open the Power Map →