The SONAR Pricing Power Index (PPI) fell to 70 this week from 71, its fourth straight weekly decline, but freight carriers still hold the upper hand in rate negotiations. Softer intermodal contract rates and ocean import bookings drove the dip, while truckload tender rejections held steady near 13.9%.
On the PPI’s 0–100 scale, 50 represents a historically balanced market. A reading of 70 means pricing power continues to favor carriers over shippers heading into the fourth quarter.
Key takeaways: SONAR PPI, week of Oct. 12, 2026
- PPI: 70 (down from 71). Fourth consecutive weekly decline, still firmly carrier-favorable.
- Three-month outlook: 76 (down from 79). The model gave back most of last week’s gain but still expects carrier leverage to build into mid-January.
- Capacity is steady. The national tender rejection rate (STRI) was 13.85%, in the 83rd percentile of the past five years.
- Intermodal contract rates fell to $1.61 a mile from $1.68, the single biggest drag on the index.
- Spot rates are holding near July levels. The national spot rate eased to $3.52 a mile from $3.56, still in the 95th percentile.
- Rail volume remains elevated in the 99th percentile as truck-to-rail conversion continues.
What pulled the index lower
Two metrics accounted for most of this week’s decline. Intermodal contract rates dropped to the 36th percentile from the 54th, taking roughly 0.9 points off the score on their own. Ocean import bookings slipped about 2% to the 48th percentile from the 56th, costing about 0.6 points. Small gains in van contract rates, the spot-contract spread, rejections and accepted volume clawed back about half a point.
Capacity: rejections hold in carrier territory
The national tender rejection rate was essentially flat at 13.85% versus 13.84% last week. Weekly rejections have stayed between roughly 13.3% and 14.4% since early August, well below the 17–18% peak of late June but still more than two and a half times the level of two years ago.
The full report explains why SONAR’s model expects rejections to move higher from here rather than hold at current levels.
Demand: rail stays strong, truckload volume stays soft
Rail volume eased less than 1% to 35,575 loaded containers but held in the 99th percentile. Truckload carriers continue to be more selective about the freight they accept, pushing loads onto rail on lanes of roughly 550 to 1,500 miles. Accepted truckload volume rose about 1% but remains near the bottom of its range, in the 13th percentile. Ocean import bookings softened yet are still running above last year’s levels.
Pricing: contract rates catching up to spot
Van contract rates ticked up to $2.74 a mile, moving to the 84th percentile, as carriers reprice contracts upward. The spot-contract spread narrowed to negative $0.11 from negative $0.15. It has been negative since mid-September because spot rates have pulled back from their early-July peak of $3.80 while contract rates keep rising.
What the three-month outlook signals
The three-month PPI outlook trimmed to 76 but remains well above today’s reading of 70. The model projects tender rejections reaching the 93rd percentile by mid-January, with spot rates and rail volume at the very top of their historical ranges. The full report breaks down the forecast metric by metric.
Read the full PPI report
The complete SONAR Pricing Power Index report includes charts and analysis for all eight underlying metrics, plus the full three-month forecast.
Read the full SONAR Pricing Power Index report inside SONAR Research or in FreightWaves Market Monitor.
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About the SONAR Pricing Power Index
The SONAR Pricing Power Index is a weekly composite score that measures whether carriers or shippers hold negotiating leverage in the U.S. freight market. It combines eight SONAR metrics (tender rejections, accepted volume, rail volume, ocean TEU bookings, spot rates, van contract rates, the spot/contract spread and intermodal contract rates), ranks each against its own five-year weekly history and weights them into a single score from 0 to 100. A 50 is a historically balanced market. Higher readings favor carriers; lower readings favor shippers.
Frequently asked questions
What is the SONAR Pricing Power Index (PPI)? The SONAR PPI is a weekly 0–100 score built from eight SONAR freight metrics that shows whether carriers or shippers hold pricing power. A 50 is balanced; above 50 favors carriers; below 50 favors shippers.
What is this week’s PPI reading? The SONAR PPI was 70 for the week of Oct. 12, 2026, down from 71 the prior week. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Why did the PPI decline this week? Intermodal contract rates fell to $1.61 a mile from $1.68 and ocean import bookings dropped about 2%. Together they subtracted roughly 1.5 points, partly offset by small gains elsewhere.
Do carriers or shippers have pricing power right now? Carriers. At 70, the PPI sits well above the balanced level of 50, supported by tender rejections near 13.9% and spot rates in the 95th percentile.
What is the PPI outlook for the next three months? The three-month outlook is 76, down from 79 last week. The model expects tender rejections to climb toward the 93rd percentile by mid-January.
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