▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ 794 Trillion Won in Market Value Gone in Five Sessions: The KOSPI closed at 6,035.35 on the 13th, down 5.46%, after falling as low as 5,911.11 intraday and slipping below the 6,000 mark for the first time since July 31. Over five consecutive losing sessions the index gave up 968.39 points, and total market capitalization shrank to 4,979 trillion won, breaking below the 5,000 trillion won line.
■ Retail Investors Exhausted as Foreign Selling Tops 203 Trillion Won: Foreign investors sold a net 8.57 trillion won this month alone, pushing cumulative net selling this year past 203 trillion won. Retail trading value, which ran at 35 trillion to 42 trillion won a month in the first half, has fallen by more than half, and the end of share buybacks at Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK hynix (000660) has removed the remaining cushion of supply and demand.
■ The AI Bottleneck Is Power Grids, Not Chips: Global power grid investment is projected to total $5.9 trillion through 2035. With data center vacancy rates in North America at around 1% and 92% of capacity under construction already leased, analysts say the case for grid investment holds even if expectations for AI growth cool somewhat.
[News of Interest to Stock Investors]
1. KOSPI Breaks Below 6,000 as Market Value Falls Under 5,000 Trillion Won
Key points: The KOSPI closed at 6,035.35 on the 13th, down 5.46%, after dropping as low as 5,911.11 intraday and falling below the 6,000 mark for the first time since July 31. Over five straight declining sessions the index shed 968.39 points, while market capitalization evaporated by 794 trillion won to 4,979 trillion won. A sell sidecar was triggered for the first time in 35 trading days, since Aug. 19. Samsung Electronics (-7.39%) and SK hynix (-10.09%) led the decline, and Korea's drop stood out against the same-day moves in Japan's Nikkei (-1.82%) and Taiwan's Taiex (-1.95%). Lee Jong-hyung, head of the research center at Kiwoom Securities (039490), said a sustained rebound is unlikely without a broad improvement in supply and demand.
2. CXMT Shock Returns After Two Months With No Catalyst for a Rebound
Key points: CXMT said it would unveil 4F² DDR5 DRAM based on vertical surrounding gate (VSG) technology this year, reviving concerns about China's technological catch-up and rattling the market again. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2028 CXMT's supply capacity will have grown to 41% of Samsung Electronics' and 50% of SK hynix's. During the shock in July, strong earnings from Microsoft served as a rebound catalyst, but this time pessimism from the chief executives of Broadcom and Intel about AI funding has added to the pressure, leaving little to drive a recovery. Kiwoom Securities put the KOSPI's near-term range at 5,500 to 7,000 and did not rule out a retest of the July low of 5,593.56.
3. Deposits Barely Hold 100 Trillion Won as Retail Buying Power Runs Dry
Key points: Average daily trading value on domestic markets fell to 29.8198 trillion won this month, about half the 60.3607 trillion won recorded in June, while investor deposits stood at 100.4389 trillion won, barely holding the 100 trillion won line. The margin loan balance remains high at 34.2887 trillion won, raising the risk of mounting forced-liquidation pressure if share prices fall further. Following Samsung Electronics' 15 trillion won program, SK hynix has also completed 89.32% of its buyback plan, and the loss of that cushion was cited as a factor that deepened the day's decline. Pension funds also sold a net 39 billion won this month after selling in September, leading to assessments that a resumption of large-scale institutional buying is unlikely.
[Reference News for Stock Investors]
4. Power Grids Seen Drawing $6 Trillion Over Next Decade
Key points: Shin Jung-seop, head of Northeast Asia at Macquarie Asset Management, identified power grids as the key bottleneck of the AI era and projected global grid investment of $5.9 trillion through 2035. Asia-Pacific is expected to be the largest beneficiary at $2.787 trillion, while the volume of capacity waiting to connect to the U.S. grid stands at 2,061 gigawatts, about 1.5 times currently installed capacity. Transmission and interconnection, distribution networks, grid services and optical fiber were named as promising investment areas, and analysts said the case for grid investment holds even if warnings of an AI bubble prove correct.
5. AI Data Centers Risky Without Screening Criteria
Key points: Cha Seung-hwan, head of the Asia infrastructure investment team at the National Pension Service (NPS), said investors in AI data centers should look at actual operating capacity rather than planned capacity, whether tenant credit is backed by guarantees, and cash flows underpinned by long-term contracts. Unlike the dot-com bubble, construction is contract-based and driven by profitable hyperscalers, he said, though the pace of capital inflows and the circular structure of funding are similarities. If holding periods stretch to 20 years, the cost of replacing equipment on a four- to six-year cycle and renewal risk from tenant concentration are risk factors that need to be checked before investing, he said.
6. Shinhan Financial to Buy Lotte Insurance for 693.3 Billion Won
Key points: Shinhan Financial Group signed a contract on the 13th to acquire a 77.04% stake in Lotte Non-Life Insurance for 693.3 billion won. The move is seen as a push to close the gap in non-life insurance by Shinhan, whose first-half group net profit of 3.4427 trillion won trailed KB Financial Group's 3.8846 trillion won by 441.9 billion won. Lotte Non-Life Insurance has 3.34 million customers and a contractual service margin (CSM) of about 2.2 trillion won, but posted a net loss of 18.5 billion won in the first half. Shinhan plans to strengthen its financial soundness through a 300 billion won capital increase and a capital reduction without consideration after regulatory approval.
