Lithuania risks losing more citizens abroad after years of positive migration

After six years in which more Lithuanian citizens returned home than left the country, preliminary figures suggest the trend may be reversing, raising concerns about the country’s workforce, economic growth and ability to attract its diaspora back home.

In September, 1,642 Lithuanian citizens emigrated, while 1,300 returned, according to the State Data Agency. The figures show a turning point after months in which the numbers of people leaving and returning had remained relatively close.

From January through September, 12,294 Lithuanian citizens returned to the country, compared with 11,753 who emigrated – a difference of just 541.

The figures are preliminary and may be revised, the agency said.

Žygimantas Mauricas, chief economist at Luminor Bank, said the trend was concerning because Lithuania had hoped to attract more citizens living abroad to help develop the economy and bring back experience gained overseas.

“I would view this with a certain degree of concern, because Lithuania very much hoped that a significant number of Lithuanian citizens living in other countries would return to Lithuania, contribute to the country’s economy and share the experience they have gained abroad,” Mauricas said.

He warned that Lithuania could record a negative migration balance among its citizens this year for the first time in years if the trend continues.

Wages, prices and security concerns

More men than women are emigrating, and most are of working age. The main destinations remain the United Kingdom, Norway and Germany, according to Vaiva Randytė, a specialist at the State Data Agency.

The reasons for leaving are varied, but economic factors remain important. High housing costs, rising prices for consumer goods and services, and competition in the labour market are among the concerns facing people considering a move abroad.

Mauricas said some Lithuanians see little reason to remain in the country if they can perform similar work abroad for significantly higher pay.

“What difference does it make whether you work in Lithuania and speak a language other than the state language in certain sectors, or work with almost the same people in Sweden, Finland or Norway and earn twice as much?” he said.

Geopolitical uncertainty is another factor, Mauricas said, with fears of war potentially influencing decisions to leave.

He also warned that the longer people remain abroad, the less likely they are to return. Migrants establish social networks, start families and enrol their children in local schools, making a move back to Lithuania increasingly difficult.

“Returning becomes, in a way, a second emigration,” he said.

A 2024 survey found that six in 10 Lithuanians who had emigrated did not rule out returning in the future. However, many did not expect to do so within the next five years.

Keeping ties with the diaspora

As the government seeks to maintain connections with Lithuanians abroad, officials are promoting Lithuanian-language schools to help younger generations preserve their language and links to their ancestral country.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kristupas Vaitiekūnas said the schools offer educational and practical benefits while helping children maintain ties with Lithuania. In the United States, for example, completing such a school can provide an additional point in some higher education admissions processes.

Vaitiekūnas said stronger cultural connections could eventually translate into economic ties, whether through a return to Lithuania, investment or tourism.

“Once that stronger connection with Lithuania is established, an economic connection follows,” he said.

The government is also considering financial incentives to encourage emigrants to return.

Social Security and Labour Minister Inga Ruginienė has proposed a family support package offering between 2,000 and 5,000 euros to returning emigrants. An additional 1,000 euros would be allocated for certain integration needs, recognising that returning families may include children born abroad who need to learn Lithuanian and adjust to life in the country.

Mauricas said such measures would need to form part of a broader strategy to address the reasons people leave.

He argued that Lithuania also needs a clear immigration policy defining how many foreign nationals the country should admit, what skills they should bring and how they should be integrated into society.