Calgary has yet to see same trouble as national condo market

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Calgary’s condominium market is not like Toronto’s or Vancouver’s, and that’s good news given the struggle those markets have experienced in recent years with oversupply and insufficient demand.

A new study illustrates the relative health of Calgary’s resale and new apartment segments despite rising supply and falling demand.

“Calgary’s got these tailwinds” for housing overall, says Ryan McLaughlin, economist with RPS, which recently published a study comparing the difference in price between new and resale condominiums across provinces.

It found that between 2023 and the end of 2025 the price difference between new and resale condominiums shrank in British Columbia and Ontario.

In Alberta, that spread actually increased from $84,000 to $136,000.

In contrast, it shrank in B.C. from $102,000 to $3,000, and in Toronto, the gap fell from $45,000 to $27,000.

While a decreasing difference might seem like good news for buyers seeking new product in those cities, it actually reveals how these markets have been over-supplied with new condominium product just as demand fell amid higher borrowing costs and reduced international immigration, McLaughlin says.

“That’s really where the resale supply has been hitting the market,” he says about new product that has not been sold upon project completion listing on the resale market.

Inevitably, new condominiums listed for resale increase the average price of the resale condo market, which shrinks the price difference between new and resale units, he adds.

“There’s just a glut of new condos.”

At the same time, the type of new condos coming to market has been mostly one-bedrooms designed to meet demand from previously high international migration in Toronto and Vancouver, he adds.

The resale market, by comparison, features more two-bedroom and larger units that may be older, but these often command premium prices, due to scarcity.

Calgary’s market is in much better shape for a variety of reasons. These include relative affordability, a better job market and a strong economy despite challenges with trade with the United States, McLaughlin says.

“It’s also got population growth that other markets don’t have.”

Still, recent statistics from the Calgary Real Estate Board show the condo resale market is dealing with oversupply. It now has five months’ supply based on current sales demand — the highest among all housing segments.

Resales for apartments were down 25 per cent year to date, ending Sept. 30. Again, that is the highest of all segments.

CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie notes the oversupply is driven by significant purpose-built rental construction, which indirectly creates competition for resales as vacancy increases and rental rates decline.

“This slows the demand for first time homebuyers and investors impacting condominium ownership demand,” she says. “At the same time, the resale market is competing with newly constructed condos.”

The new market is responding after record years of starts from 2022 to 2025.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. statistics ending Aug. 31 show apartment starts falling nearly 17 per cent — though activity by number of units is still more than double other housing types.

Only 23 per cent of all activity involves condominiums while 36 per cent of all starts in Calgary involve rentals. Freehold homes for ownership make up 41 per cent of all starts.

“The market is more elastic,” McLaughlin says. “It has the ability to build” in response to changing market conditions because of land availability unlike Toronto and Vancouver.

Yet the question for Calgary is how long the economy — driven by oil prices — will remain strong.

“We’ve seen this before,” he says.

“Developers build like crazy, and then it crashes.”