The world has plenty of oil. Yet prices keep climbing, and JPMorgan says the problem is now at sea. There are simply too few available tankers to move all that crude.
In an October 9 note, the bank warned that a shipping bottleneck is driving up transport costs, even as Middle Eastern producers increase exports.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached 12 million barrels a day in September, up from 7.5 million in July and August. Yet prices remain high.
Remember when JP Morgan came out 2 weeks ago claiming Hormuz flows were near pre-war highs?
— Nic (@puckrin) October 11, 2026
Well, they have a new oil report and it's not looking good.
"October is beginning to look like April".
Why?
The cost of shipping crude is skyrocketing and it's not changing soon. pic.twitter.com/oDXEkF4Qt3
The World’s Oil Tankers Are Running Out of Capacity
According to JPMorgan, 766 of the world’s 923 supertankers were already in use by September. Another 124 Iranian vessels are largely inaccessible to mainstream shipping because of US sanctions.
The remaining ships face longer journeys, while transferring oil between vessels can take up to 10 days.
Consequently, moving Middle Eastern crude now requires 35 more supertankers than the 2025 average, excluding Iranian shipments.
“In April, the problem was a shortage of crude. In October, it is the cost of moving it,” JPMorgan analysts Natasha Kaneva, Lyuba Savinova, and Artem Fakhretdinov wrote.
One Oil Tanker Now Costs $1.16 Million a Day
The shortage is already hitting freight markets.
On October 7, a supertanker heading to South Korea was hired for $1.162 million per day, according to Seatrade.
Meanwhile, Brent crude traded near $102.77 on October 9, while US crude reached approximately $93.13.
Higher shipping costs are squeezing refiners, too. JPMorgan warned that European refining margins are turning negative, potentially forcing some facilities to reduce production.
Can More Oil Actually Bring Prices Down?
Earlier this month, G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves.
President Donald Trump also claimed the Strait of Hormuz no longer drives gasoline prices.
However, JPMorgan’s findings raise a bigger question: What happens when governments release more oil than available ships can efficiently transport?
For investors, shipping capacity is becoming increasingly important. Tanker-focused investments have already drawn attention amid the disruption.
Until shipping costs ease, additional crude supplies may offer limited relief to buyers.
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