EDMONTON, Alberta — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a final appeal to voters considering a path toward independence in his home province of Alberta on Friday, warning that a referendum is a dangerous gamble at a time of growing threats to Canada’s sovereignty.
With U.S. President Donald Trump waging a trade war and threatening to make Canada the 51st state, Carney warned that the referendum comes at the “worst possible time” and urged Albertans not to take the outcome for granted.
“Don’t let anyone tell you this is already decided. Turnout will determine the outcome,” Carney told a pro-Canada rally in Edmonton, where he grew up.
“This is not a game. This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and Canadians,” he said.
Monday’s vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Alberta, home to most of Canada’s proven oil reserves — the fourth largest in the world — will decide whether to remain a province or instruct the government to begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.
Carney’s closing appeal came after two days of campaigning against separation in the province. Earlier Friday, the Liberal prime minister joined Alberta’s conservative premier Danielle Smith in a show of unity against independence.
Smith praised Carney for improving relations with a province that frequently clashed with his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, over his carbon tax and other energy policies.
“I think what we can agree on is that we have had some real change in the last 18 months,” Smith said alongside Carney in Red Deer, Alberta.
Smith noted that Carney grew up in Alberta and remains an Edmonton Oilers fan.
“He can’t be all bad, right?” she joked.
Trump’s threats raise the stakes
“Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us. Never. Never,” Carney warned Friday in Edmonton, repeating a warning he made a day earlier in Calgary.
At Thursday’s Calgary rally and Friday’s Edmonton rally, the crowd erupted in its loudest applause when Carney spoke about reducing Canada’s economic dependence on the United States.
Carney acknowledged Alberta’s longstanding resentment of federal energy policies.
“Growing up, I remember how Ottawa made Albertans feel like our resources weren’t our own,” he said.
But he also emphasized his deep ties to the province.
“Alberta is my home. I grew up here. This city, this province, this country have given me everything: my family, my education, my values,” he said.
Some Albertans say the vote shouldn’t have been called
Outside the Edmonton rally venue Friday, Alberta independence supporters waved flags and held a sign reading “Say no to Carney’s new world order.”
Smith called the referendum despite opposing independence herself. She recently cited a poll showing 22% of Albertans support separation, a figure she said was still too high.
Smith also faces pressure from separatists within her governing United Conservative Party. Former Premier Jason Kenney said the independence movement gained influence within the party as activists angry over COVID-19 restrictions, some influenced by conspiracy theories, embraced separatism.
But some Albertans who want to remain in Canada are angry with Smith for calling the vote.
“I think it’s a travesty really to be putting our province and our country through this when such a small portion of people are rabble rousing and saying they want to separate from Canada,” said Deb Lee, a retired Calgary resident who voted in advance to remain in Canada.
Smith said Carney had substantially addressed seven of nine federal laws Alberta opposed. She also cited cooperation on a proposed oil pipeline.
Independence advocate Tanya Clemens dismissed the agreements between Carney and Smith as “basically pinky promises” that came with too many conditions.
Political leaders unite against separation
Carney’s chief political rival, federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, also urged Albertans Friday to remain in Canada.
“Don’t leave your fellow Canadians behind. Lock arms with them,” Poilievre said.
Despite their agreement on keeping Alberta in Canada, Carney and Smith remain divided over nine other questions on Monday’s ballot involving immigration and provincial powers. Smith wants voters to approve them, while Carney has urged their rejection.
“For the first time in a long time, Alberta and Canada are walking together,” Smith said.