Predicting Every Pelicans Player's Minutes on Opening Night vs. Pacers

The New Orleans Pelicans showed that they were willing to defend this preseason. They also showed how little that improvement will matter if they cannot generate enough offense to support it.

New Orleans finished fifth in preseason defensive rating, up from 18th a year earlier, but ranked 22nd offensively. Its net rating was essentially even at plus-0.2 points per 100 possessions.

Four exhibition games aren't enough to establish an identity. Still, the split captured the challenge facing Jamahl Mosley. The defensive effort is improving, while poor shooting and uneven offensive execution threaten to erase the gains.

The Indiana Pacers will test both ends of that equation in Wednesday's season opener. Indiana's tempo, shooting, and frontcourt size will challenge New Orleans' defense. Its transition attack can punish any turnovers that prevent the Pelicans from setting their defense in the first place.

Do the Pelicans have functional depth, or just a lot of players? This matchup should begin to answer that.

Tyrese Haliburton makes the distinction especially important. In his last two meeting with New Orleans before his Achilles injury, he averaged 27.5 points, 11.5 assists, and three steals, shooting 48.6 percent overall and 50 percent from three. Indiana was +25 with him on the floor across those games.

Containing him begins before Indiana has the ball. Live-ball turnovers would give Haliburton an open floor and shooters running to the arc. Once the defense is set, the Pelicans have to navigate screens, contest shots, and rebound without giving up second chances.

Those priorities shape our every-player projection for Tuesday night.

The starters: Defense has to justify the fit

Jeremiah Fears: 28 minutes. Fears' preseason production, 13.3 points per game on 50 percent shooting, strengthened his starting case. His ability to attack can help New Orleans avoid playing entirely against a set defense. His test is recognizing when to attack and when to move the ball. Over-dribbling into traffic would undermine the defensive advantage Mosley wants to establish.

Herb Jones: 32 minutes. Jones' offensive value goes beyond his scoring average. He posted a 57.8 percent true shooting mark and a 116.2 individual offensive rating in preseason, both top-five figures among the 11 players projected to play here. Those results support giving him substantial minutes for more than his defense. Mosley can trust a player who takes difficult assignments without requiring the offense to revolve around him. Against Haliburton, efficient complementary offense makes Jones easier to keep on the floor.

Trey Murphy III: 34 minutes. Murphy's height helps against Indiana's wings, while his shooting is essential beside Williamson and Missi. His 23.8 percent preseason three-point shooting doesn't change that responsibility. Mosley should stagger his shifts to provide spacing for reserves rather than leave an entire second group searching for it.

Zion Williamson: 30 minutes. Williamson must make Indiana defend him without allowing missed shots or turnovers to become easy baskets the other way. His transition effort and defensive awareness are key to getting off to a good start. Thirty minutes keeps him rested, allowing Williamson to stay aggressive and Mosley to be more flexible with his reserves.

Yves Missi: 26 minutes. Missi averaged eight boards and 1.3 blocks in just 18.5 preseason minutes, while posting a 130.8 individual offensive rating. His production gives Mosley a reason to protect these minutes despite the spacing concerns beside Williamson. Screens, rolls, finishes, and offensive rebounds offer ways to contribute without needing plays run for him. Against Ivica Zubac, his strength and discipline will be tested. But Missi showed enough at both ends to make Queen and Matkovic earn any additional time at his expense.

The reserves: Different problems require different answers

Indiana's frontcourt makes these decisions more complicated than matching one reserve center against another.

Zubac can punish weak interior resistance. Jay Huff stretches a defense away from the basket and scored 29 points against New Orleans in January. Helping too aggressively against either creates opportunities for Indiana's perimeter shooters.

That is why Matkovic gets more time here and why extended small-ball stretches look less appealing.

Dejounte Murray: 22 minutes. Murray provides Mosley with another organizer and a bigger perimeter option, but his experience doesn't excuse him from the ball-security concerns. He should direct most possessions when Fears sits, with brief stretches alongside him. Mosley could still choose him to start; controlling the game matters more than the introduction order.

Saddiq Bey: 18 minutes. Bey's 38.5 percent preseason three-point shooting supports his role a floor-spacing, secondary scorer. His strength helps against contact, but strength alone won't solve Indiana's length and offensive activity. He must rebound and make timely defensive rotations to keep his offensive value from being offset.

Bennedict Mathurin: 16 minutes. Mathurin offers downhill scoring and foul pressure. The concern is how many offense-first players Mosley can use together against a team that moves the defense this aggressively. He gets an opportunity, but defensive execution should determine whether his shifts grow.

Karlo Matkovic: 12 minutes. Matkovic offers size, mobility, and a potential spacing counter after making four of 11 preseason threes. Huff's shooting makes defending away from the rim important. That doesn't guarantee Matkovic wins the matchup, but it gives Mosley a reason to test him rather than automatically hand every reserve-center minute to Queen.

Derik Queen: 12 minutes. Queen's rebounding was productive, but his 33.3 percent shooting and nine turnovers against nine assists were eyebrow-raising in the preseason. Indiana can test both his defensive positioning and his decision-making. His opportunity should come in manageable bursts built around screens, quick passes, and finishes. Holding the ball while teammates watch could invite the stalled possessions the offense has to avoid.

Jordan Poole: 10 minutes. Murray's availability reduces the need for additional ballhandling, while Haliburton makes vulnerable defensive backcourts harder to hide. Poole still gets a scoring opportunity, particularly if the offense sputters. But he has to provide movement and solid passing as well as shot creation. Trading tough shots or turnovers for Indiana transition chances would defeat the purpose.

Who sits, and who finishes?

The Pelicans' opening night roster includes 15 standard-contract players and three two-way players. Among the standard group, Bryce McGowens, A.J. Johnson, Trendon Watford, and DeAndre Jordan project for no rotation minutes. Two-way players Jaron Pierre Jr., Malik Dia, and Julian Reese also project for zero.

McGowens is the most plausible defensive option if Indiana's wings become too much of a problem. Jordan offers emergency offers emergency size against Zubac, although transition defense and spacing would still be concerns.

My default closing group matches the starters, with Murray available if Mosley prioritizes veteran ballhandling. Matkovic becomes an option if Indian's spacing requires a different center response.

The Pelicans can't afford a rotation that defends but can't score, or one that scores while constantly giving the points back. Mosley needs players who can connect possessions at both ends. Until those combinations emerge, a crowded roster is a list of options rather than proof of depth.