Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli will start Sunday’s US Grand Prix 2026 from pole position at Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas. He set a 1:34.035 lap in Saturday’s qualifying, 0.179 seconds ahead of Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.
Antonelli leads the drivers’ championship, and a win on Sunday could make him champion with five rounds still to run. The race starts at 3 p.m. Austin time (4 p.m. ET, 20:00 UTC).
Key Facts
- Who: Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) took pole; Verstappen and Isack Hadjar (both Red Bull) follow.
- Lap: Antonelli’s 1:34.035 beat Verstappen by 0.179 seconds and Hadjar by 0.215.
- Race: Sunday, 25 October, 3 p.m. CDT (4 p.m. ET), 56 laps, 308.432 kilometres.
- Title: Antonelli led Mercedes teammate George Russell by 102 points before Austin.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi gives Verstappen 45% and Antonelli 43% to win the race (25 October, 00:25 ET).
How Qualifying Finished
Antonelli topped Q3 on Saturday, 24 October. Verstappen took second with 1:34.214, and Hadjar was third with 1:34.250.
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton qualified fourth and fifth, at 1:34.267 and 1:34.311. Russell was sixth (1:34.476), ahead of McLaren’s Oscar Piastri (1:34.803) and Lando Norris (1:35.049).
What Antonelli Needs on Sunday
Five rounds remain after Austin, with 125 points available. To be champion in Texas, Antonelli must leave the race at least 125 points clear of every rival.
According to GrandPrix.com, that means winning the race while Russell finishes ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower. A second place would not be enough, even if Russell scored nothing.
Grid Penalties Reshuffle the Back
Audi’s Nico Hülkenberg qualified 12th but starts 11th. Racing Bulls driver Arvid Lindblad, who qualified ninth, drops to 14th after a new combustion engine.
Audi’s Gabriel Bortoleto qualified 13th but takes a back-of-the-grid penalty for new power-unit parts. Franco Colapinto also takes a 10-place penalty and starts 21st.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi’s market for the race winner, with 663,168 contracts traded, priced Verstappen at 45% and Antonelli at 43% on 25 October at 00:25 ET. Polymarket’s market on the season’s drivers’ champion, with US$204.7 million traded, put Antonelli at 98.7%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prices are bets, not forecasts or polls. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
What It Means for US Readers
Austin is one of three US rounds on the 2026 calendar, alongside Miami and Las Vegas (19–21 November). COTA has hosted the US Grand Prix since 2012, so a title decided here would be settled on home soil for American fans.
With the race at 4 p.m. ET on a Sunday, a possible championship celebration falls in prime US viewing time. Our earlier piece on how Antonelli can clinch the title and the qualifying preview give the background.
What Is Not Known
The race result, podium and final points were not known when this was written. Penalties, incidents or technical investigations after the start could still change the classification.
Whether Verstappen, Ferrari or McLaren can match Mercedes over 56 laps is also open. Exact penalty sizes for Bortoleto differ between early reports.
Sources
FIA qualifying report; Formula 1 (formula1.com) race and practice reports; Circuit of The Americas; GrandPrix.com; RaceFans; Kalshi; Polymarket.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is on pole for the US Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli of Mercedes, with a 1:34.035 lap. Max Verstappen is second and Isack Hadjar third.
When is the US Grand Prix race?
Sunday, 25 October 2026, at 3 p.m. in Austin, which is 4 p.m. ET or 20:00 UTC. It runs 56 laps at Circuit of The Americas.
Can Antonelli win the title in Austin?
Yes, mathematically. He must win while Russell finishes ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower.
What do prediction markets say about the race?
Kalshi priced Verstappen at 45% and Antonelli at 43% to win on 25 October. These are real-money bets, not polls.
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