Bangladesh is facing a worsening food security crisis, with an estimated 18.1 million people projected to experience acute food insecurity between September and December 2026, as persistent inflation, shrinking purchasing power and climate-related disasters put increasing pressure on vulnerable households.
The projection represents an increase of 2.8 million people from the 15.3 million estimated to have faced acute food insecurity between May and August, according to an assessment conducted using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) framework.
The findings, highlighted in reports by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), show that access to affordable food remains a major challenge despite the availability of food supplies in the country.
The warning comes as Bangladesh observes World Food Day on Friday (16 October), under the theme “Innovate today. Nourish tomorrow.”
The latest projections suggest that around 787,000 people could face emergency levels of food insecurity during the final four months of the year, requiring urgent humanitarian assistance.
Rising prices push food beyond reach
High living costs and limited income opportunities have emerged as major drivers of food insecurity, particularly among low-income households that spend a substantial share of their earnings on daily necessities.
Although food inflation has moderated from previous peaks, essential commodities remain expensive, leaving many families struggling to maintain adequate diets.
According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data cited in the report, food inflation stood at 7.22% in September, while non-food inflation reached 9.30%.
The figures indicate that prices continue to rise, although at a slower pace than during earlier periods of exceptionally high inflation.
Market data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) show that coarse rice costs at least Tk50 per kilogram, while loose wheat flour is selling for around Tk50 per kilogram.
For families dependent on daily wages or irregular employment, these expenses leave little room for spending on nutritious foods, healthcare and other essential needs.
The economic outlook has added to concerns.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 13 forecast cited in the report, Bangladesh’s economic growth could slow to 3.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while average inflation could reach 10.9%. Slower economic growth combined with sustained inflation could further weaken household purchasing power and increase the number of people requiring food assistance.
Extreme weather has intensified the pressure on food security, damaging farmland and disrupting livelihoods in several parts of the country.
According to the WFP report cited by local media, floods and waterlogging affected approximately 80,000 hectares of agricultural land in 2026, impacting around 230,000 farming households and 1.3 million people.
The damage has affected both crop production and the incomes of families dependent on agriculture.
For small farmers and agricultural labourers, losing crops can mean losing not only a source of food but also the income needed to purchase other necessities.
The UN-backed food security assessment identifies inflation, reduced household purchasing power and flood-related livelihood losses as major factors behind the deteriorating outlook.
Beyond immediate food shortages, inadequate nutrition remains a serious concern, particularly among children.
According to WFP figures cited in the report, one in four children under five in Bangladesh is stunted, meaning their growth has been affected by prolonged nutritional deficiencies.
Another 11% suffer from wasting, a condition associated with low weight for height.
The report also indicates that two in five households experience significant micronutrient deficiencies, highlighting the challenges of ensuring access to balanced and nutritious diets.
Such deficiencies can affect children’s physical growth, cognitive development and long-term health outcomes.
Government figures indicate that Bangladesh currently holds approximately 2.35 million tonnes of food grains in public stocks. However, the existence of food reserves does not necessarily mean that all households can afford sufficient food.
According to Food Ministry figures cited in the report, around 834,000 tonnes of rice and wheat were distributed through various government programmes between July 1 and October 8.
The amount was approximately 48,000 tonnes lower than during the corresponding period last year.
The figures underline the importance of ensuring that available food reaches households facing the greatest economic hardship.
Concerns also remain over the potential impact of instability in the Middle East, which accounts for nearly half of Bangladesh’s remittance inflows, according to the report.
Any significant disruption to remittances could further affect household incomes and purchasing power.
Economists have urged the government to prioritise vulnerable communities and expand targeted support to prevent the food security situation from deteriorating further.
Selim Raihan, professor of economics at Dhaka University and executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), said identifying households facing the greatest risks should be the government’s immediate priority.
He called for expanded food assistance for low-income families, day labourers, agricultural workers, female-headed households and people living in disaster-affected areas.
Raihan also stressed the need to increase the availability of essential commodities, including rice and lentils, at affordable prices.
He recommended extending targeted cash assistance to genuinely vulnerable households while strengthening market monitoring to prevent artificial shortages, hoarding and price manipulation.
Ensuring transparency in food distribution and preventing assistance from being diverted away from intended beneficiaries would also be essential, he said.
The projections highlight an increasingly urgent challenge for Bangladesh: protecting vulnerable households not only from insufficient food supplies but also from the economic hardship that prevents them from accessing adequate and nutritious meals.