Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, says NEAR could climb to 40 times its current value by 2030. He said the project’s base-case outlook points to $155.85 by 2030, while the maximum projection stands at $562.81, more than 100x the token’s current value. In the worst-case scenario, the price could drop to $1.63, he stated.
However, he believes that even a 40x to 50x surge would still leave NEAR valued less than today’s Ethereum. It is against this backdrop that Milk Road Crypto posed the question: “Is it absurd to think that the fundamental layer on which agentic finance takes place is less valuable at maturity than Ethereum is today at the depths of the bear market?” Hougan’s definitive answer was “no, it is not absurd.”
AI agents could create a new source of demand for NEAR
The investment thesis centers on the potential of autonomous AI agents capable of performing tasks and financial transactions without human intervention. These systems would eventually handle tasks such as payments, trading, booking services, and digital asset management. And such work would also require the infrastructure to move money between apps using blockchain.
NEAR is positioning itself to serve that market through NEAR Intents, where users and applications can run transactions across different blockchains without dealing with the complexity from the user and application side
The protocol could become more valuable if AI agents increasingly rely on this infrastructure to exchange assets and settle payments. NEAR’s chain abstraction technology is designed to let applications interact with assets across multiple networks, supporting the broader vision of an interconnected agent economy.
Hougan says NEAR Protocol can survive on its blockchain business side
Bitwise’s bullish view of NEAR is based on the potential revenue generated by transactions across its network. In its 2030 base-case scenario, it estimates that 328 million AI agents can perform 1,000 transactions annually at an average cost of $5. Based on these assumptions, it uses a 0.3% fee and a 50x valuation multiple to arrive at the NEAR price of $155.85.
But Hougan believes NEAR does not need to dominate the AI agent economy for its long-term potential to justify that. The network already has an active blockchain business, and its AI ambitions are another growth opportunity and the sole reason for its valuation.
Up until now, NEAR Intents has processed almost $30 billion in cross-chain transactions, making Bitwise’s predictions based on a proven concept. Though earlier, Hougan noted that NEAR Protocol does not need to be the winner of the AI race to have enough value. It is already a thriving, active blockchain business, making its future AI ambitions a lucrative side bet rather than a necessity, he said.
He also argued that NEAR is among the smaller-cap tokens with a combination of immediate practical applications and huge upside potential. Furthermore, he mentioned that transaction volume is a backstop for the NEAR token’s thesis, as there is still room for success even if agentic finance fails or captures only a small market share.
Speaking alongside him on The Rollup podcast, Sovereign CEO Sal Ternullo further noted the project appears to be reaching a point where user activity is more closely tied to the token’s value.
Bitwise rolled out a spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca
At the end of September, Bitwise Asset Management launched a spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca, providing US investors with a way to hold the layer-1 token through a regulated investment vehicle and to stake it. This fund now operates under the ticker NRR. The fee charged to investors is 0.75% per year.
According to Bitwise, the staking of the underlying assets is done by the internal staking team. On-chain data collected on September 25 also showed that the estimated annual staking yield comes to 5.3%.
Although the rewards may fluctuate and cannot be guaranteed, they are reflected directly in the fund’s NAV. Moreover, according to the firm’s filed prospectus, 33% of the total NEAR earned goes to compensate staking agents, custodians, and Bitwise, leaving the trust with 67% of the gross earnings.
The ETF also gives investors another way to gain exposure to NEAR without directly purchasing and managing the token in a crypto wallet. Its staking feature also offers an additional source of returns, but investors are still exposed to price swings and changes in staking rewards. The fund’s performance will depend on NEAR’s market price, and its annual management fee and share of staking-related expenses will determine the return investors ultimately receive.
With respect to the fund, Hougan at the time noted that there will be an increasing need for secure and independent settlement systems as AI agents become involved in various activities, such as booking and payments.
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