Swing is increasing, but the runs conceded per wicket are not declining; instead, they are rising. The run rate conceded per over is also on an upward trend. The batters are faring no better. The scoring rate is slowing down towards the end of innings. Yet, taking advantage of the same rules, many other teams are finding success with the ball and discovering new ways to score runs with the bat.
The ICC’s new rules in ODI cricket have become something of a strange puzzle for Bangladesh. The bowlers are generating more swing but failing to turn it into wickets or restrict the opposition's scoring. Meanwhile, Bangladesh's batters are struggling to cope with their opponents' reverse swing.
The latest example of this puzzle came last Saturday in Abu Dhabi. Bangladesh lost to Zimbabwe by 99 runs in the tri-nation series. Batting first, Zimbabwe scored 271 for 8. In reply, Bangladesh's innings ended inside 34 overs at 172.
At the post-match press conference, Taskin Ahmed also attributed the defeat to batting failures. His assessment was that although the bowling had become somewhat more consistent, Bangladesh continued to make regular mistakes with the bat.
In the match Bangladesh lost to Zimbabwe, Taskin Ahmed delivered the best bowling performance. He took three wickets for 44 runs in 10 overs. However, a closer look reveals another reality. Taskin bowled well only at the beginning of the innings that day, leaking runs towards the end. In his first spell with the new ball, he bowled six overs, including two maidens, conceded just 18 runs and took three wickets.
Yet, his two overs at the death cost 19 runs. He conceded 10 runs in one over and nine in the other, without taking a single wicket.
Instead of declining, Mustafizur's bowling average in the death overs has increased by 5.3. His economy rate has also risen by 0.9. In other words, despite generating more swing, he is conceding more runs to take wickets than before. He is also giving away more runs per over.
Taskin was not the only one to leak runs at the death that day. Mustafizur Rahman, known as the Cutter Master, also struggled. He conceded 24 runs in his three overs at the death without taking a wicket. Yet, that was precisely the stage of the match when he was expected to bowl at his best.
Why?
To find the answer, we need to go back to July last year, when the International Cricket Council (ICC) changed the rules governing the use of white balls in ODI cricket.
Under the new rules, two separate balls are used from either end for the first 34 overs of an innings. After that, the captain can choose one of the two balls. The remaining 16 overs are played with the selected ball.
Captains generally choose the older looking, rougher ball because it is more suitable for generating reverse swing.
According to observations by CricViz, a cricket data and statistics analysis company, reverse swing has been given a new lease of life in ODI cricket since the introduction of this rule. Fast bowlers are getting more swing towards the end of innings than before, making it increasingly difficult for batters to score runs.
Many teams have started benefiting from this change. Some are performing better with the ball, while others are adapting to the situation by changing their batting strategies. There are also teams whose bowlers are succeeding even as their batters struggle.
Before the introduction of the new rule, Bangladesh's run rate in the death overs stood at 7.84. That means the team scored an average of around 78 runs in the final 10 overs.
The unfortunate reality is that Bangladesh is struggling on both fronts. The batters' scoring rate has declined towards the end of innings, while the bowlers, despite getting more swing, are finding it difficult to contain runs. Their bowling averages and economy rates are also rising.
Mustafizur and Taskin generate more swing but lag behind in results
Among the four fast bowlers who have recorded the biggest increases in swing generated during the death overs since the introduction of the new rule, two are Bangladeshis — Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed.
The amount of swing generated by Mustafizur's bowling has increased by 49.5 per cent. That sounds impressive. However, the next two statistics show that the additional swing has not translated into greater success for him.
Instead of declining, Mustafizur's bowling average in the death overs has increased by 5.3. His economy rate has also risen by 0.9. In other words, despite generating more swing, he is conceding more runs to take wickets than before. He is also giving away more runs per over.
The picture is similar for Taskin. The swing generated by his deliveries has increased by 40.8 per cent. Yet his bowling average has risen by 1.9 and his economy rate by 1.6.
A look at fast bowlers from other countries shows just how unusual the performances of Bangladesh's two pacers are.
West Indies' Alzarri Joseph has recorded an 83.6 per cent increase in swing. His bowling average has dropped by 6.7, while his economy rate has remained unchanged. South Africa's Lungi Ngidi has seen his swing increase by 63.3 per cent. His bowling average has fallen by 10.6 and his economy rate by 3.3.
In that case, batting strategies will also need to change. Instead of waiting to launch an assault in the final 10 overs, teams may need to accelerate their scoring during the middle overs, particularly between overs 20 and 40.
One could argue that Joseph and Ngidi have been more successful because their swing has increased by more than that of Mustafizur and Taskin.
But Pakistan's Naseem Shah's statistics weaken that argument. His swing has increased by 38 per cent, less than that of either Bangladeshi pacer. Yet his bowling average has dropped by 19.2 and his economy rate by 1.6.
Meanwhile, Australia's Nathan Ellis has recorded a 39.9 per cent decline in swing, yet his bowling average has dropped by 61. His economy rate has remained unchanged.
In other words, generating swing alone is not enough. Bowlers must also know how to use that swing to restrict runs and take wickets. And that is precisely where Mustafizur and Taskin are falling behind.
Batting presents an even bigger concern
The bowlers' contrasting statistics are not Bangladesh's only concern. The batting picture is even more worrying.
In ODI cricket, the final 10 overs of an innings are generally considered the most important period for scoring runs. With wickets in hand, batters try to increase the total by playing big shots during this phase.
But the increased reverse swing and late movement of the older ball have made that task more difficult. For Bangladesh's batters, the challenge is even greater.
Another major reason for Bangladesh's concern over the ICC's new rule is the 2027 ODI World Cup. The tournament will be held in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia in October and November next year. There is still almost a year to go. But signs are already emerging that the impact of the new rule could bring significant changes to teams' batting and bowling strategies at the World Cup.
Before the introduction of the new rule, Bangladesh's run rate in the death overs stood at 7.84. That means the team scored an average of around 78 runs in the final 10 overs.
After the rule change, that run rate has dropped to 6.56. In other words, Bangladesh now scores around 66 runs on average in the final 10 overs. The scoring rate has declined by 1.28 runs per over.
For a Bangladesh side that already lags behind in power-hitting, this decline is a major cause for concern.
More worrying still, Bangladesh ranks fourth among the teams that have recorded the biggest drops in death-over run rates. Only the West Indies, New Zealand and Australia have experienced steeper declines.
The West Indies' run rate has fallen from 10.31 to 7.92, a drop of 2.39. New Zealand's has declined by 1.68 and Australia's by 1.47.
However, not all teams are experiencing the same situation.
India's run rate has moved in the opposite direction, rising from 6.99 to 8.33. This means they are now scoring 1.34 more runs per over since the change in rule. England's run rate has also increased from 8.07 to 9.16.
In other words, while some teams are finding new ways to score runs under the same rules, others remain stuck with their old strategies. For now, Bangladesh belongs to the latter group.
What lies ahead at the 2027 World Cup
Another major reason for Bangladesh's concern over the ICC's new rule is the 2027 ODI World Cup.
The tournament will be held in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia in October and November next year. There is still almost a year to go. But signs are already emerging that the impact of the new rule could bring significant changes to teams' batting and bowling strategies at the World Cup.
Reverse swing, in particular, could play a major role in South African conditions.
However, it is too early to draw any firm conclusions. Since the new rule was introduced in July 2025, only three ODIs have been played in South Africa. As a result, there is not yet enough data to assess its impact.
Still, the natural characteristics of South African pitches must be taken into account. In the country's conditions, the ball generally swings and moves more towards the end of an innings than in other countries. There is also greater bounce.
On the other hand, in recent years, teams have scored an average of 7.35 runs per over during the death overs in South Africa. In other words, there have also been ample opportunities to score runs towards the end of an innings.
But if reverse swing with the older ball becomes more effective, that equation could change. When combined with bounce, reverse swing could make it even harder for batters to play big shots in the final 10 overs.
In that case, batting strategies will also need to change. Instead of waiting to launch an assault in the final 10 overs, teams may need to accelerate their scoring during the middle overs, particularly between overs 20 and 40.
This is even more important for Bangladesh. Under the new rule, the scoring rate towards the end of an innings is declining, while the pacers are also struggling to restrict opponents' scoring during that period.
On the one hand, Mustafizur and Taskin must turn the additional swing they are generating into an effective weapon. On the other, the batters must learn new ways to score runs while coping with the reverse swing of the older ball.
Bangladesh have one year left before the 2027 World Cup. The question is: will they be able to make the most of that time?