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The rivalry between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs is simmering into arguably the most heated in the NBA. It was very obvious during the 2026 Western Conference Finals matchup between these two teams that they did not like each other one bit — with the Spurs taking every matchup against the then-reigning champion very personally.
The two Western Conference powerhouses will get their first look at each other on Opening Night on Tuesday at 9:30 PM E.T in what should be another hotly-contested game between two teams that are out for blood.
Victor Wembanyama, in particular, always seems to have it out for Chet Holmgren, whom he outplayed thoroughly not just in the playoffs, but throughout their head-to-head matchups in the regular season as well.
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While the Thunder and Spurs made a few changes to their roster from their WCF tilt, their core players remain the same. OKC will be especially raring to get back at San Antonio after losing eight of their 12 games against them last season (regular season and playoffs combined).
The Thunder will feel especially hard done by the fact that they faced the Spurs with a shorthanded roster to end the Conference Finals, but the likes of Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, who could have made all the difference back in May, should be active for this upcoming contest.
With that said, here are a few bold predictions for how the Opening Night clash between arguably the two best teams in the NBA will go.
Dylan Harper ends up leading the game in scoring
The Spurs are not taking any chances with Dylan Harper. They are reportedly promoting the second pick of the 2025 NBA Draft to the starting lineup after showing out in the playoffs.
Some believe that this decision from head coach Mitch Johnson isn’t exactly ideal. Julian Champagnie was so good for the Spurs last season as a low-usage floor-spacing defender. Meanwhile, Harper is another player who needs the ball in his hands to be at his best, and his fit alongside guards De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle isn’t the most seamless as well.
This Thunder team also projects to be one of the best, if not outright the most suffocating defense in the NBA even though they lost Luguentz Dort. After all, Cason Wallace should step into the starting lineup and have OKC’s defense pick up where it left off.
However, Harper is just too good, and instilling confidence in him by putting him in a starting role should work wonders as soon as Opening Night. He has incredible mastery of angles when knifing to the hoop and finishing around the basket, and on Opening Night against OKC, flying under the radar as more of a secondary or even tertiary scoring option should free him up to thrive.
It is certainly bold to predict Harper to finish as the highest scorer in a game where Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander should both suit up. But if there’s anything the 2026 NBA playoffs showed, it’s that Harper is ready for a bigger role and is in for a breakout 2026-27 campaign — impressing on Opening Night.
Chet Holmgren outscores Victor Wembanyama
Holmgren became quite the laughingstock following Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. After all, the Thunder star big man wilted under the pressure, putting up just four points in 33 minutes of play with their season on the line.
It wasn’t just the lack of scoring that had fans clowning Holmgren. It’s the fact that he attempted just two field goals in a game where Gilgeous-Alexander needed all the help he can get on offense. It got to a point where Jaylin Williams looked like the superior option since he was an actual threat to score the ball, all while being unafraid to get his nose dirty against the Spurs star.
Holmgren has also missed the entirety of preseason due to a quad contusion, although all signs point to him being healthy enough to suit up for Opening Night against the Spurs. Nonetheless, there is a chance that the Thunder actually handle him with kid gloves to begin the season, instead relying on preseason star Aday Mara to hold the fort in the frontcourt.
Nonetheless, Holmgren is only 24 years of age, and he has most certainly heard all the criticisms hurled his way following the dreadful way he ended last season. He is a proud NBA champion, and it’s not like he’s a bad player. And for once, even with Wembanyama being in his ear all night long, he is going to show why he can stand eye to eye with the Spurs star by scoring more points than him on the night.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets off to a slow start
It was a point of emphasis for NBA officials to call more flopping infringements as well as to cut down on the exaggerated off-arm movements that offensive players use to create space for a shot.
Gilgeous-Alexander, make no mistake about it, is an elite player. He can average 30 in his sleep even without having to shoot free throws. He can get to his spots at will, and his shot-making ability is in the 99th percentile of all the players who’ve stepped on an NBA court in the league’s history.
But the Thunder star also admittedly gets away with some push-offs, and he also has a tendency to exaggerate contact so that he could draw fouls and put easy points on the board for OKC.
Given how locked in the Spurs’ defense will be on Gilgeous-Alexander, do not be surprised if he gets off to a slow start on Tuesday night.
Thunder get their revenge on Opening Night
The Thunder did lose three rotation players, but they kept their core players. Meanwhile, the Spurs are changing up their starting lineup, which would require adjustments.
It will be interesting to see how Fox, Castle, and Harper play off of each other. But the Thunder are so elite defensively, and with Williams back to full health, Gilgeous-Alexander should now have the reliable scoring weapon he needed back in May.
Remember, the Thunder won three games against the Spurs in the Conference Finals despite fielding a shorthanded squad. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s meaningful offseason addition, Tobias Harris, won’t be available on Opening Night due to a calf strain.
OKC’s health and continuity, along with huge games from Holmgren and Williams, should be enough to ward off an incredible outing from Harper as the Thunder hand the reigning Western Conference champion Spurs their first loss of the season.
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