The NBA season is here! As competitive as it will be, there are always players who surprise. Breakouts can occur all over the league, but also at different levels. From a star to a superstar, from potential to consistent contributor. The leaps these players make can lift their teams in ways we can't always see in October. Here are the players I have in mind that could break out and impact their teams this season.
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Dylan Harper, Spurs
I would normally Eurostep a Year 2 prospect as a breakout candidate, but Harper's growth is too much to ignore. It was clear to see just how much Harper improved over the course of his rookie year, and how impactful that improvement from Harper was in the postseason. The moment has arrived now as he's worked his way into the Spurs' starting lineup.
The command he showcased last season allowed the Spurs to have consistent guard play. Imagine if that unlocks the Spurs' three-guard lineup at the start of the season? In the preseason, we saw a lack of hesitation — nothing new, but there was a determination behind it. The drives felt smoother, and he had no problem hitting first once he got in the paint. And if the defense gave him space in pick-and-roll, he went right to a stepback or a pull-up.
Jaden McDaniels, Timberwolves
There was a loudness to the way McDaniels spoke about (and then performed against) the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs. Since then, Minnesota has shifted its identity to a smaller, younger and more athletic bunch — and it's easy to see a potential amplification on that noise from McDaniels this season.
His aggression has not stopped offensively, and that fits within what Minnesota wants to do: Get out and run in transition. A throw-ahead to McDaniels could get an easy bucket or get him attacking to a midrange shot. Depending on matchups, the Wolves can use McDaniels as a screener. There is room for him to be involved in more pick-and-roll and handoffs, and he's had zero issue reading the defense and being aggressive to look for his shot. The more he becomes a threat for Minnesota, the stronger the team will be. Plus, he will defend anybody.
Amen Thompson, Rockets
It should not be forgotten how much Thompson grew as a player last season. The everlasting question seems to revolve around his jump shot, but what if he simply gets a lot better at the things he's already good at? And does the experience he’s gained pay off this season with more guard play changing his context? Without having to initiate as much offensively, can that energy shift back to the defensive end?
If the ball-handling growth sticks, he can become an ever present paint touch with his speed and athleticism. If teams are working to cut off those drives, perhaps he finds a comfort in accepting the space and mixing in pull-ups. That's on top of the excellent work he does as a cutter and the fact that Houston is playing a little faster, which could boost him in transition. If he can consistently make the defense pay, think about how that could elevate the Rockets' attack.
Ausar Thompson, Pistons
A lot of the conversation surrounding Detroit's offseason was about — drum roll — not adding playmaking to the room. There's been a thought bubbling in the back of my mind that whatever some may think the Pistons lack, the team believes it has in Ausar Thompson. There is a feel of improvement to his decision-making, ball-handling and passing. A comfort to run pick-and-roll and, whether it's a drop or a switch, attack that space, engage and work to pass out of it.
The ball in Thompson's hands unlocks the ability to move Cade Cunningham off flares or pindowns. There is also a growing comfort in driving to his spot and rising up if he’s cut off. The Pistons work to move him around the board, but if teams want to put a big or a lesser defender on him, things open up. He can be used as a screener and a roller. The more he adds to the Pistons attack, the more they can keep pressure on teams.
Brandon Miller, Hornets
There was a consistency that Miller showcased in the latter half of last season that the Hornets have to believe will stick around. The breakout feels less about the talent Miller has, but how he adds to it. There have been glimpses of more poise in the playmaking department.
The journey of every scorer is to navigate when that scoring draws more attention from defenses: noticing when there are two on the ball and getting off the ball; driving in the paint, seeing help come and spraying it to the perimeter; a greater understanding of knowing your job on that possession has been done. There is enough movement within what Charlotte wants to do offensively that he won't have to nail those, but it will make him and the team better. Understanding the shots he wants to take, driving and making plays could make him a different threat.
Ajay Mitchell, Thunder
With the Thunder's roster changes, the runway is clear for Mitchell to continue to ascend. You have to think about Mitchell's skill set within what the Thunder like to do. A lot of the preseason chatter revolved around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being moved off-ball, and a part of that is the trust Mitchell has earned in the OKC ecosphere.
His ability to drive and reject pick-and-rolls fits right in, and if he's drawing attention, think of the players he is kicking out to. Mitchell initiating action, running pick-and-roll and advancing to Jalen Williams or SGA is tough for a defense to handle. That's on top of dealing with an aggression and desire to score the ball whenever the opportunity presents itself. A world where defenses have to account for Mitchell opens a lot up for an (already great) Thunder team.
Collin Murray-Boyles, Raptors
There is zero doubt that Murray-Boyles will continue to bring a level of havoc, disorder and disarray to opponents on the defensive end. There's an activity that consistently stands out. He's just always doing something on the defensive end of the floor. Quick hands, understanding and positioning erase whatever windows offenses think they have found.
The offensive growth is where he can really enhance his impact. His work at the 5 has been gold. Screening on- or off-ball opens him up as a roller to score or make decisions. He's got a knack for flashing into open areas and snaking around the dunker spot. If he continues to add drives and shows a confidence to take the 3s presented to him, the Raptors have a lot of lineups they can throw at teams.
Walker Kessler, Lakers
The breakout case for Kessler is grounded in taking the things we've seen him do well and doing it night in and night out. The Lakers acquired him because of his ability to rotate to protect the rim, screen-and-roll and finish. If he does that consistently, the impact will be felt for a Lakers team that needs his production.
His ability to time his rotations around the rim to contest and block shots will boost what the Lakers want to do defensively. On offense, he'll have to work to develop chemistry with Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves to open up the pick-and-roll, making an effort to get to his roll quicker and become a short roll and lob threat. If he produces that for this specific team, the conversation around his ceiling may shift.
Tari Eason / Reed Sheppard, Rockets
It's a combination of two teammates, but both feel set up for success in different ways. Eason is a reminder that success in this league is not always linear. He likely appeared as a breakout candidate last year, though the season wasn't as full as expected. But without his contract status hanging over his head, what could that mean for this season?
His size and length open up lineup versatility for the Rockets. His growth offensively could impact the lineups the Rockets can throw out there. Being involved in more pass-and-cut actions in the half-court to get downhill is a different way to attack. Showcasing more confidence and patience with the ball in his hands is a plus for a Rockets offense that can run dry at times. Mixing in makes from 3s with the ability to beat closeouts and keep advantages is a win.
For Sheppard, the mission appears to be a lot simpler. Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart are in tow, so the ask will be different. Instead of being the only pull-up threat for the Rockets and being tasked with mixing in playmaking, there's a world where he can be himself: more off-ball actions to unlock the pressure his shot-making can unlock; simplifying his reads in pick-and-roll because others will be able to initiate and make plays. He may not showcase the full radar of growth, but he might have an opportunity to double down on what he does well.
Davion Mitchell, Heat
Yes, I can hear you through the screen, but stick with me. Mitchell has showcased a specific blend of on-ball commotion and a level of might on his drives. That's felt like a fit for what the Miami Heat (culture) wants. What does that look like with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster?
As opposed to relying on his drives to the level the Heat did last year, they might be a bonus. His ability to attack in transition combined with a willingness to beat closeouts could pop even more this season. Mixing in some catch-and-shoot 3s will help. If he's able to blend his speed with decision-making, we may walk away feeling differently about his overall impact for the Heat.