By Kang Yoon-seung
SEOUL, Oct. 13 (Yonhap) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for South Korea in 2026 to 3.3 percent, citing strong semiconductor exports that more than offset the fallout from the Middle East war.
The Washington-based organization released the assessment in the World Economic Outlook report, raising its forecast by 0.7 percentage point from its July projection. The revised figure exceeded its global growth forecast of 3.1 percent.
The report was released to coincide with the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, which began Monday in Bangkok and will run through Sunday.
The IMF projected South Korea's economy will grow 2.8 percent in 2027, up 0.3 percentage point from its previous forecast.
The organization identified South Korea and Taiwan as key trading partners in the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware industry, noting developments in the two economies could have spillover effects on raw material exporters and manufacturing hubs.
This file photo taken Oct. 1, 2026, shows containers stacked at a port in the southeastern city of Busan. (Yonhap)
On the global economy, the IMF said downside risks, including tensions in the Middle East and trade fragmentation, persist but have eased since July.
It cited commodity price volatility, inflationary pressures, a reassessment of expected productivity gains from AI and a possible resurgence in trade tensions as downside risks.
A prolonged AI technology upcycle and a restructuring of energy supply chains, however, could provide upward momentum, the IMF added.
The Ministry of Finance and Economy said the latest forecast reflects South Korea's robust exports of AI hardware and chips, noting the upward revision of 0.7 percentage point exceeded the 0.4 percentage-point increase for the group of 41 advanced economies, whose growth forecast stood at 2.1 percent for 2026.
The ministry, however, noted uncertainties persist, including the prolonged Middle East war and higher consumer prices weighing on households.
The government will work to address economic disparities and improve people's livelihoods to bolster the economy's growth potential, the ministry added.
Earlier this month, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projected South Korea's economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, raising its previous forecast from 3.1 percent.
Last month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also marked up its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea to 3.7 percent from 2.6 percent, also citing the country's robust exports.
In September, South Korea's exports soared 83.5 percent from a year earlier to a record US$120.9 billion, driven by a surge in chip shipments.
Semiconductor exports exceeded $60 billion for the first time last month, boosting overall outbound shipments.
This composite image shows the International Monetary Fund logo and an arrow indicating growth. (Yonhap)
colin@yna.co.kr
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