Mexico Poll Puts Morena at 46% for Midterms

MEXICO · POLITICS

Morena, Mexico’s governing party, leads every rival by a wide margin in a new El Financiero poll for the June 2027 midterm elections, with 46% of adults polled naming it as their preference. The Mexico City newspaper published the result on Monday 19 October 2026, from a telephone survey taken on 10 to 15 and 17 to 20 September.

For US readers, the vote on 6 June 2027 decides whether President Claudia Sheinbaum’s bloc keeps the two-thirds majority in the lower house that it needs to change Mexico’s constitution. The poll is a snapshot of party support, not a forecast of seats, and its fieldwork ended 29 days before publication.

What the Poll Found

Morena has 46% of preferences, the PAN 8%, the PRI 6% and Citizens’ Movement 5%. The Green Party (PVEM) has 2% and the Labour Party (PT) 1%, while the two newest parties, PAZ and Somos, are each between 0% and 1%.

A further 31% of those interviewed named no party at all. The 38-point gap between Morena and the PAN, its nearest rival, is far outside the poll’s stated margin of error.

Asked for their opinion of the parties, 55% were favourable to Morena, 31% to the Green Party and 29% to Citizens’ Movement. The PAN and the PRI drew favourable opinions from 26% and 21% and unfavourable ones from 64% and 70%, the worst images measured.

Trust in the National Electoral Institute (INE), the independent agency that organises federal elections, stands at 52%. Trust in the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, the top electoral court, is 48%.

Who the Parties Are

Morena is the governing party of President Claudia Sheinbaum, led by Ariadna Montiel, and its own statement of principles calls it a movement of the left founded by former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The Green Party (PVEM) and the Labour Party (PT) are the two smaller parties that ran with Morena in its 2024 coalition.

The National Action Party (PAN), led by Jorge Romero, is the largest opposition group in the Chamber on that roster, and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), led by Rafael Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas, is another opposition party. Citizens’ Movement (MC), coordinated by Jorge Álvarez Máynez, is a smaller opposition party.

PAZ and Somos are the two newest national parties, registered by the INE on 25 June 2026. A national party that wins less than 3% of the valid vote in a federal election loses its registration under the constitution, so 2027 is their first test.

How the Poll Was Done

El Financiero surveyed 800 Mexican adults by telephone, using a probability sample of landline and mobile numbers in all 31 states and Mexico City. At a 95% confidence level the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which applies to the whole sample and not to smaller groups such as one region.

What Happens on 6 June 2027

The INE’s calendar sets election day for Sunday 6 June 2027, when all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are chosen, 300 in single-member districts and 200 by proportional representation. The constitution renews the whole chamber every three years and caps any one party at 300 seats.

Seventeen governorships are on the same ballot, and the INE counts more than 19,000 local offices across all 32 federal entities. District counts begin on Wednesday 9 June, and the regional count that assigns the proportional seats is set for Sunday 13 June.

Changing the constitution needs two-thirds of the members of Congress present and a majority of the state legislatures. On the Chamber’s own roster of 30 October 2024, Morena held 253 seats, the PVEM 62 and the PT 49, which is 364 of 500 and above the 334 that two-thirds of a full chamber requires.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, the market on which party wins the most seats in the 2027 Chamber of Deputies priced Morena at about 87 cents on 19 October 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET, an implied probability of about 87%. The PAN stood at about 6.9 cents, Citizens’ Movement at about 3.1 cents and the PRI at about 2.5 cents.

That market has traded about US$110,000 in all, about US$57,000 of it on the Morena contract. These are bets by traders, not polls, and the market pays out on seats won in the Chamber, not on vote share.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

Nothing changes today for travellers, residents or companies in Mexico, because a poll is not a law and the election is more than seven months away. If the ruling bloc keeps its two-thirds majority, it can keep amending the constitution without an opposition vote, which shapes the rules that US companies and investors in Mexico work under.

The closest earlier piece on this race is Mexico Midterm Elections 2027: Safety Pledge and Odds. It covers the interior secretary’s promise of safe elections and her request that parties field candidates with clean records.

What Is Not Known

The poll was taken 29 to 39 days before publication and El Financiero’s article gives no earlier reading, so it is not known whether Morena is gaining or losing ground. The 31% who named no party could still move the result, and the article gives no regional breakdown.

The Rio Times could not find the study in the INE’s public list of election polls, which had no section for the 2026-2027 process when we checked. It is also not known whether the PVEM and the PT will run with Morena in every 2027 race, and the seat figures above come from the Chamber’s 30 October 2024 roster.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is ahead in Mexico’s 2027 election poll?

Morena, the governing party, has 46% of preferences in El Financiero’s poll, against 8% for the PAN and 6% for the PRI. Another 31% of those interviewed named no party.

When is Mexico’s next federal election?

On Sunday 6 June 2027, when voters elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, according to the INE calendar. Seventeen governorships and more than 19,000 local offices are also at stake.

How reliable is the poll?

It is a telephone survey of 800 adults with a margin of error of 3.5 points, taken on 10 to 20 September, so it is a snapshot rather than a forecast. Morena’s lead over the PAN is far larger than that margin.

What do prediction markets say?

Polymarket priced Morena at about 87% to win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies on 19 October. That is a bet by traders, not a poll.

What are PAZ and Somos?

They are the two newest national parties, registered by the INE on 25 June 2026. Each needs at least 3% of the valid vote in a federal election to keep its registration.

Sources: El Financiero, Morena aventaja en preferencias hacia elecciones 2027, 19 October 2026, INE, Elecciones 2027 (calendar and offices at stake), INE, Partidos Políticos Nacionales, INE Central Electoral, coalition agreements, 22 February 2024, INE, Encuestas Electorales, Constitution of Mexico, text in force after the reform of 7 October 2026 (Articles 41, 43, 51, 52, 54, 99 and 135), Chamber of Deputies, roster by parliamentary group, 30 October 2024, Morena, Declaración de Principios (INE copy). Polymarket prices and volumes: the platform’s public market data for the Mexico legislative election markets, read on 19 October 2026 (not linked). All other pages retrieved on 19 October 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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