Brazil · News Hub
Updated 16 October 2026
Where Things Stand Today
Brazil elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026, and a poll released on 14 October shows the race inside the margin of error. In the same week Congress ended the six-day work week and the central bank’s activity index showed the economy growing again.
- 25 October. Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro meet in the runoff, and Quaest polled Flávio at 46% and Lula at 44% on 10 to 13 October with a margin of error of two points. Datafolha on 15 October had Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, and in the first round on 4 October Flávio won 47.03% and Lula 45.16%.
- 16 October. Congress promulgated the constitutional amendment that ends the six-day work week. A five-day schedule with two paid rest days and a 42-hour week starts in 60 days, and the week falls to 40 hours 12 months later. Some high earners and workplaces with collective agreements are treated differently.
- 16 October. The central bank’s economic activity index (IBC-Br), a monthly proxy for GDP, rose 0.3% in August. Economists had expected the same 0.3% gain.
- Mid-October. Petrobras, the state oil company, pumped 2.96 million barrels of oil a day in September, according to preliminary regulator data. Third-quarter output averaged 2.89 million barrels a day.
- 10 October. Rio de Janeiro’s regional electoral court recounted the governor vote and put Douglas Ruas of the Liberal Party at 50.88%, enough to win in the first round. That followed the Supreme Electoral Court’s 5 to 2 ruling of 8 October that voided 274,411 votes for rival Anthony Garotinho.
Key Facts
- —What Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026 between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —When Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. US Eastern.
- —Economy The central bank’s activity index rose 0.3% in August, and the real trades at about 5.08 per US dollar.
- —Why it matters in the US Brazilian shares, bonds and Petrobras receipts trade in New York, and the winner sets the fiscal and trade course of the region’s biggest economy.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 76.2% and Lula 23.5% to win the presidency, and Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, gives 78% and 24% on its last trades (16 October 2026, 10:50 a.m. ET).
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.5% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 24%
As of 16 October, 11:20 am ET (16:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Latest Brazil News
- Rio de Janeiro News Today in English, Updated Daily 16 Oct 2026
- Petrobras News Today and What It Means for Investors 16 Oct 2026
- Lula Government News, Approval and Policy Tracker 16 Oct 2026
- Brazil Economy Grows 0.3% in August 16 Oct 2026
- Rio Open 2027 Plays Rio de Janeiro 13 to 21 February 16 Oct 2026
- What to Do in São Paulo in October 2026: BTS, Iron Maiden and the Berliner Philharmoniker 16 Oct 2026
- Lula Rejects US Terror Label on Brazil Gangs 16 Oct 2026
- Brazil Retailer Settlement Pays Fired Staff 16 Oct 2026
- Lula Backs Criminal Age Cut to 16 16 Oct 2026
- Brazil Pays US$48M on Unpaid State Loans 16 Oct 2026
- Brazil’s Rio Seeks Federal Troops for Runoff 16 Oct 2026
- Bolsa Família Adjustment Next Steps After Lula’s Remark 16 Oct 2026
Brazil News by Topic
Election
Brazil runoff 2026
Government
Lula government news
Energy
Petrobras news
City
Rio de Janeiro news
Economy
Brazil economy 2026
Taxes
Tax reform
Brazil Key Facts and Numbers
Runoff
Sunday 25 October
Three weeks after the first round on 4 October 2026. The winner takes office on 5 January 2027.
Runoff poll
Flávio 46%, Lula 44%
Quaest, 2,154 people, 10 to 13 October, margin of error two points.
First round
47.03% / 45.16%
Valid votes for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, according to the electoral court (TSE).
Activity, August
+0.3%
IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, published on 16 October.
Work week
44 to 40 hours
End of the six-day week, with two paid rest days. The 42-hour step starts in 60 days.
Oil output
2.96 million b/d
Petrobras, September 2026, preliminary regulator data.
Exchange rate
5.08 reais
Per US dollar, market rate of 16 October 2026.
Next rate decision
Wednesday 4 November
Central bank’s rate committee (Copom) announces its decision that evening.
The runoff date, the first-round shares and the voting hours come from the electoral court (TSE). Polls are surveys with a margin of error, and they are not forecasts.
Brazil Explained for Readers Outside the Country
Brazil is Latin America’s largest country and economy, with more than 210 million people, and its capital is Brasília. Its biggest cities are São Paulo, the financial centre, and Rio de Janeiro, the former capital and the home of Carnival.
Power is shared between a president, who serves four-year terms, and a two-chamber Congress with 513 deputies and 81 senators. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the electoral court (TSE) play an unusually large role in daily politics.
Many headlines use Portuguese acronyms. A PEC is a proposal to amend the constitution, and it needs three-fifths of both chambers to pass.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Polymarket, president: Flávio Bolsonaro 76.2%, Lula 23.5%, with about US$184.5 million traded (16 October 2026, 10:50 a.m. ET).
- Kalshi, president: Flávio Bolsonaro 78%, Lula 24% on the last trades, with 6.2 million contracts traded. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator.
- Polymarket, margin of victory: the largest single outcome is a Flávio win by less than four points at 40.5%, with about US$1.6 million traded.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to Watch
The runoff on Sunday 25 October is the main event, and results start to arrive after polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília. Inflation data for mid-October follows on Friday 23 October, with a forecast of 0.4% for the month and 4.6% over twelve months.
Brazil reports unemployment for July to September on Friday 30 October, and economists expect 5.5% against 5.3% before. The central bank’s rate decision comes on Wednesday 4 November, and Petrobras reports third-quarter results on Tuesday 10 November.
What It Means for Readers in the United States
US investors in Brazilian shares, bonds and the real should expect larger price swings around the runoff. The result will shape trade ties with Washington, fuel policy at Petrobras and the debate over government spending.
Travellers in Brazil on 25 October should check the advice of their embassy. Election-day rules can affect local services.
What Is Not Known
No one can say who will win, because the latest polls leave both candidates inside their margins of error. Prediction market prices are bets, not polls, and they point to a clearer Flávio lead than the surveys do.
It is also unclear how fast the new work-week rules will change company payrolls. The security amendment was pulled from the Senate floor agenda, and its timing is open.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is happening in Brazil today?
Brazil is in the final nine days before a presidential runoff on 25 October 2026 between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. On 16 October Congress also ended the six-day work week.
When is the Brazilian presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October 2026. Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 4 p.m. on the US East Coast.
Who is ahead in the Brazil election polls?
A Quaest poll released on 14 October put Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%, and Datafolha on 15 October had 51% to 49% of valid votes. In the first round Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%.
How is the Brazilian economy doing?
The central bank’s activity index rose 0.3% in August. The next data points are mid-October inflation on 23 October and the rate decision on 4 November.
What time is it in Brazil compared with New York?
Brasília time is one hour ahead of US Eastern Daylight Time until 1 November, when the US clocks go back. Brazil has no daylight saving time.
Where can I follow Brazil news in English?
The Rio Times publishes Brazil news in English every day, and Agência Brasil, the state news agency, runs an English service. This page lists the latest Rio Times stories in the box above.
Sources: Agência Senado: end of 6×1 approved · Agência Brasil: Congress promulgates the amendment · Quaest poll of 14 October (Money Times) · Electoral court: Brazil elections · Jornal Opção: Ruas elected governor
Read more: Brazil news in English: the investor and expat guide · Brazil election 2026 · Lula government news · Petrobras news · Rio de Janeiro news · All Brazil news