In Kansas, a newly-competitive Senate race tests limit of Trump's unpopular policies

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DODGE CITY, Kan. — If ever there were a place to symbolize both opportunities and obstacles that Democrats and Republicans face politically this midterm election, it would be Kansas.

Two years after President Trump earned 57% of the vote, Kansas Republicans are grappling with the possibility that a Democrat could win a U.S. Senate race for the first time in nearly a century.

Adam Hamilton, a self-billed "independent-minded Democrat," has led in several polls against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.

Both parties have redirected tens of millions of dollars in recent weeks to try and shape the surprising toss-up race. The president announced Tuesday he would campaign in Wichita next week for Marshall and other Republicans on the ticket.

But after eight years of Democratic governor Laura Kelly who is term-limited, Republicans are also hoping to retake control of the state's top office as one of the few pickup opportunities in an otherwise daunting midterm environment.

State Senate President Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate, leads in polls against Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher in a race that is less nationalized than other competitive gubernatorial races around the country.

The last-minute shift in national attention to the Sunflower State is reflective of how unpopular Trump's second term agenda has become with voters, especially in typically Republican states in the Midwest that have been disproportionately affected by rising fuel prices and tariffs.

As early voting gets underway in Kansas, neither side is taking the voters for granted.

'It's about decency'

At a get-out-the-vote event in Lawrence Monday, Hamilton told the crowd that his priorities if elected are tackling affordability and health care, but also restoring "human decency" to politics.

"Now listen, I had somebody say to me, 'Look, I don't want somebody who's going to build bridges, I want somebody who's going to crush the Republicans,'" he said. "But here's the thing: if you want that in a state with only 25% of the population who are Democrats, you'll never get them elected.

"And if you did, they become part of the problem instead of part of the solution."

Hamilton is the founding pastor of Church of the Resurrection, the country's largest United Methodist Church congregation across its multiple campuses, and positions himself as a moderate voice seeking to tame rabid partisanship that has dominated modern politics.

"We've got to find solutions that will be a compromise between what the Republicans want and the Democrats want, but are going to end up getting something done as opposed to right now, where that doesn't happen very often," he said.

At a time when the Democratic Party brand is unpopular with voters, too, Hamilton is quick to point out that he's not a Democrat you might find in a blue state.

"We've been trying to make clear in our commercials that a Kansas Democrat is a bit different than a New York Democrat or a Los Angeles Democrat, and not just a little — a lot different," Hamilton told NPR.

That's also reflected in the slew of endorsements from conservatives, including former Republican Kansas governors Mike Hayden and Bill Graves.

Hamilton also told NPR of a recent event where Republican Party leaders said they were crossing over to vote for him.

"There were Republicans who were saying, 'We've got to do better,'" he said. "You represent our values. You represent the character we're looking for in somebody in leadership. And we know you're going to fight for both Republicans and Democrats. And they're exactly right."

Most of his stump speeches wrap with a callback to "The Wizard of Oz," with Hamilton saying Washington needs more senators "who have a brain and use it, who have a heart and feel empathy with it, and who have courage and speak up because of it."

Hamilton's campaign is also bolstered by backlash to many elements of President Trump's second term, including tariff policies and rising fuel prices, that have proven unpopular, causing the Republican Party's favorability ratings to plummet.

A Republican contrast to lead the state

Even as Republicans sweat the closer-than-expected Senate race, the party is optimistic about winning back control of the governor's office after eight years of Democrat Laura Kelly's leadership.

The Kansas Republican Party is on a weeklong bus tour across the state, bringing a message of contrast that is more state-focused than dealing with the challenging national environment for the party.

Masterson, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, said in Dodge City that tackling issues like affordability and lower energy prices would come from putting a Republican back in the state's top office.

"There's never been a clearer choice than we've had in this election," he said. "If you want working families to be able to afford to live, if you want to stop taxing people out of their homes and out of their businesses and off their farms, if you want safe communities, lower energy prices, i.e. then lower grocery prices… It's not really a choice. You need to vote Republican."

On the trail, the nominees pointed to Kelly's frequent vetoes of measures from the Republican supermajority in the legislature — and overrides of those vetoes — as a motivating factor to get voters to the polls.

State Rep. Pat Proctor, the Republican nominee for Secretary of State, said aside from the state's history of alternating support for governors from both parties, there is strong precedent for still supporting Republicans.

"We are closer to where Kansans are on all the individual issues," he said. "And when they hear us talk and they look at what we actually do, we're just closer to where they want Kansas to be."

While Republicans in other states may have to deal more with Trump's shadow over their own campaigns, campaign speeches rarely mentioned the president or his unpopular policies. Instead, it was all about painting the Democratic nominees as extreme and out of touch.

For his part, Marshall has painted Hamilton as too liberal, saying he would destroy Kansas' cattle, agriculture, oil and gas industries if elected.

"Kansans need to know that my opponent, Adam Hamilton, is the most radical liberal person that ever got through a primary in the state of Kansas," he said to cheers.

Still, Marshall has been dogged by negative headlines over the last month, starting with a debate at the Kansas State Fair where the senator was shouted down by the crowd repeatedly.

Marshall's campaign also faced pushback after releasing an attack ad that claimed Hamilton "protected a pedophile" used images of two unrelated businesses, and paid an outstanding invoice from a cookie shop after a viral social media post claimed the campaign failed to pay for six years.

Kansas is one of only a few states that currently have a senator from one party and a governor from the other party, and is one of nearly ten states where voters could also split their choices for those key positions next month.