The turnaround did not begin with a change in his hitting approach. Colt Keith remained the same hitter capable of often avoiding high swing rates against pitches outside the zone, who can expand his contact and find success to the opposite field as well.
You will not find much power in his offensive line, but the ability to draw walks, add value as a baserunner, and make contact have been his best tools as a hitter.
After his first three years with the Detroit Tigers, Keith has recorded a .306 BABIP in 1447 plate appearances, with an 8.0 BB% and a 102 wRC+. He has just 36 home runs, and he finished his 2026 season with 10, the lowest total of his career after producing 13 in each of his previous two seasons.
His improvements in the second half of the season saved Keith’s campaign at the plate. After his inconsistencies during the first part of the year, seeing his OPS fall to .685—the worst regression of his career—he managed to make adjustments in the batter’s box.
Keith began extending his at-bats and drastically changed his results, but he did not do it by abandoning his approach. His plate discipline remained intact, and you may then wonder how he managed to raise his walk rate from 5.5% in the first half to 11.3%, revitalizing his on-base percentage from .294 to .371.
In fact, his swing rate at pitches outside the zone saw a slight jump from 24.9% to 26.1%, and his overall contact did not show major differences, improving by just 1.3% compared to the first half. So the change belongs to a specific game situation that had been a problem for Keith, and it was when he reached a two-strike count.
In that situation, he managed to draw a walk in just 6.5% of his 124 plate appearances, while watching his offensive line collapse to a troubling .164/.218/.233, with a .458 OPS and just a 24 wRC+.
Then, after the All-Star break, he managed to survive with better production in his next 86 plate appearances with two-strike counts. His strikeout rate dropped from 42.7% to 36.0%, producing a .658 OPS and a better .341 BABIP compared to .279 in the previous stretch.
His walk rate, which was often leading to more strikeouts, also saw a notable rise from 6.5% to 10.5%, which was key to Keith raising his wRC+ to 86.
Should Keith Remain in the Plans as a Starter for 2027?
There are several ways to answer that. First, it depends on what approach the front office will take regarding the need to strengthen the team. Gleyber Torres will become a free agent, and I do not think Detroit will make him any offer. We could discuss that later.
Now, after Torres’ departure, there are two clear options: either the Tigers go after a free agent who can replace him, or they address Torres’ absence with options within the organization.
If Detroit is thinking about a free agent, I would love Luis Arraez for the approach of this mostly young team on the field, and I think he would fit quite well with the style of play we could expect from the current core of players.
I would not rule out Brandon Lowe or Jazz Chisholm Jr., but both should be more expensive, and Arraez would fit much better given his contact profile and the defensive improvements we saw from him in 2026. That said, if the solutions were internal, then we would have to analyze what the team’s priority would be.
Of course, there are many options around the team that finished the 2026 season, but there is not much good news on the defensive side. And here I think the main decision is not even about who plays second base, but where they will put Kevin McGonigle. If the idea is to keep him at shortstop, where he played much better than at third base, then Keith could be an option at second base and Hao-Yu Lee at third base.
The problem here is that Keith posted his worst defensive results at second base between 2024 and 2025, finishing with -5 Fielding Run Value and -2 Inf. DP, and Lee’s defense at third base (-5 FRV, -5 Range) finished as the second-worst on the team in 2026, behind only Spencer Torkelson (-6 FRV).
Analyzing that recent history, I would not even be sure that Detroit has determined who its infield starters should be. For that reason, we also cannot rule out the possibility that Zach McKintry remains the starting shortstop, McGonigle works on his defense to improve at third base, and then Keith and Lee split playing time at second base.
When Lee is available, another option could be for Keith to play third base and McGonigle to move to shortstop, which seems more coherent according to the defensive analysis.
Obviously, what can change this entire plan is for the Tigers to manage to bring in a free agent who can solve the problem at second base and offer stability to an infield that really needs it.
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