Opinion
It’s October 2025, and I’m on the platform in Italy’s northern city of Verona waiting for a train that will take me to Milan. It’s crowded. When the train pulls in and the doors open there’s a rush. It’s pandemonium. Travellers with big cases are trapped on the narrow steps into the carriage. When they enter, the luggage racks are full and they mill about looking for somewhere to stash their bag. By the time I get on board, all the seats are taken. I’m left standing for the whole 90-minute trip.
It shouldn’t be like this. October should be shoulder season in Europe, a quieter, cheaper time to visit, but the way it was is not the way it is.
Is there a new shoulder season?
Whether your destination was Scotland or Malta, shoulder season was once a great time to travel. The price of air travel was below peak summer, hotel rooms were easier to find and restaurants and cafes were cheaper and less crowded and so was transport. The days of shoulder-season bargains and crowd-free travel are off the table. Air travel and accommodation are now subject to dynamic pricing. As demand squeezes supply, the price rises, regardless of the season, and demand for off-peak season travel has boomed.
Part of the problem is climate change. The European summer of 2026 was a scorcher. Orani in Sardinia saw 48°C, less than 1°C off Europe’s all-time record. In France, temperatures peaked at 43.8°C. Over the summer, Paris saw 40.9°C, London 38.1°C. In early August, Italy put all of its 27 major cities on a red alert, signifying an increased health risk due to the prolonged extreme temperatures. The great cities of Europe do not do hot summers. The limestone facades of Rome absorb heat during the day and radiate it well into the night. A hot night in a hotel room without air conditioning is one you won’t forget in a hurry.
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Some are calling November the new shoulder season, but not in my book. It’s too often grey and soggy, days are short and the sparkle of Christmas with its markets, tinselled trees and mouth-pleasing treats is too far off to lift the gloom. Spring brings promise, but April weather is unpredictable. You might be walking around in a T-shirt or a puffer jacket, and carrying an umbrella.
For my money, the best times to travel in Europe are May to mid-June and mid-September through to almost the last week of October. That’s the traditional shoulder season, and for fewer crowds and mild and fairly stable weather, I’m prepared to cop prices that are not too far off those of peak summer.
Is the coolcation the answer?
East Finnmark sits at the northern tip of Norway, putting a cap on Finland and butting up against Russia. It’s as far north as you can go in mainland Europe, and as you might expect, it’s chilly. In July, the warmest month, the average daily maximum temperature is 15°C, dropping to 9°C at night. Sound like your kind of summer holiday? Maybe not, but between June and August 2025 the region recorded an impressive 15 per cent increase in overnight stays over the same period in 2024. That’s about the same as the increase in international guest nights recorded in the rest of Norway that year.
The sudden appetite for cool, uncrowded summer holidays – the “coolcation” – is trending right across Scandinavia, fuelled by the desire to escape the heat and hordes that descend on Mediterranean Europe. While the strategy has its merits, and the Nordic countries have much to offer, I’m not convinced. The coolcation has created problems. Outside the major cities the tourism infrastructure, created for fewer visitors, has yet to ramp up to cope with the stampede. Roads in remote areas are often narrow and congested in summer. You might find yourself stuck behind a caravan on a winding mountain road, one of life’s lesser pleasures. Arctic ecosystems have evolved in isolation, they’re hardy but fragile and don’t respond well to increased foot traffic, and visitors sometimes face pushback from locals according to a recent article in London’s Telegraph.
What does and doesn’t work in shoulder season
Some places need warmth and crowds to function. In mid-September, when schools and the offices are calling, Europe’s coastal resort towns look sad and deflated. The cafes and restaurants are either closed or empty except for the locals and there’s no queue at the ice-cream stalls. The beach clubs that add their plumage of umbrellas and bars to the sand and rocks are closed. It’s the same in the mountain towns. In Italy’s Dolomites most of the rifugi will close for the season between late September and October. The shutters won’t open again until mid-June, although the period between alpine summer and the ski season throws up bargains.
But this is prime time in Europe’s great cities. The simmering heat of summer has gone along with the worst of the foreign tourist numbers. In the countryside, it’s harvest time. Workers are busy in the fields, the vineyards and the olive groves. In the oak forests of France and Italy, whiskery men are out with their dogs searching for truffles and the markets are overflowing with summer produce. Some of the more traditional-minded areas will celebrate the harvest season with communal feasts.
In search of the non-existent
Let’s not kid ourselves, there is no part of Europe that has amazing regional food, gorgeous walks, time-warped villages, character and charisma and which is yet to be “discovered”. However, there are plenty of regions that see fewer visitors than they deserve. Galicia and Asturias on Spain’s northern coast qualify, as does Extremadura, just to the north of Andalusia. In France, the Jura region, which nuzzles against Switzerland; Tras-os-Montes in northeastern Portugal; Greece’s Peloponnese; Molise and Abruzzo in Italy; Maramures and Bukovina in northern Romania; and Poland’s Masurian Lakes.
A strategy that works
Choose your moment and your place with care. Research weather by month and by region. England’s Lake District will have very different weather from Devon, and while you might need a beanie in June in alpine France, along the Mediterranean you’ll be wearing a straw hat. Check recent weather patterns rather than historical averages. Europe is warming faster than any other continent. The temperatures that Europe experienced in 2026 are likely to be a more reliable guide to what you can expect in 2027, rather than average temperatures over the previous decade. If you’re staying in a city, does your hotel have air conditioning and windows that open?
Be prepared to move the goalposts. The shoulder season of the past was defined by the calendar. The shoulder season of the future will be defined by the weather, the crowds and the places that haven’t yet been overwhelmed by either.
