The Los Angeles Chargers won’t trade Justin Herbert. Reportedly, the Chargers themselves have even shot down the Herbert trade buzz behind the scenes when asked.
But this is the NFL. Speculation won’t stop. And superstar trade outliers like Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, to name a few, are pretty hard to ignore.
Still, those aren’t quarterbacks. Herbert also happens to have a big no-trade clause written into his contract, a deal that also happens to hit the Chargers with wicked amounts of dead money if they do a deal.
But again, quarterback. And that position creates maybe the one scenario where projecting a Justin Herbert trade might make a small bit of sense.
Justin Herbert trade? Only 1 scenario is worth exploring
The Chargers aren’t going to give up on Herbert. He’s a top-10 quarterback under the age of 30 when clicking. Unless he explicitly wants out, it’s not going to happen.
Only one scenario is even worth talking about on this front: The Chargers boast a top-five draft pick after this season and can recoup multiple first-round picks in a Herbert trade.
That’s it. If the Chargers want to blow everything up in a full-blown reset and start building around a rookie quarterback contract, then fine. The upcoming quarterback class could be loaded and if they really like one of those prospects, getting potentially multiple first-round picks back in next year’s draft, letting them add two or three first-rounders ASAP, might just move the needle. Ask the Titans how picking early in a "down" quarterback year is going with Cam Ward.
A disclaimer: Trading Herbert is foolish. But a top-five pick, combined with shocking trade offers? That’s at least worth a raise of the eyebrow.
Smartly, the Chargers are far more likely to move on from Mike McDaniel and Jim Harbaugh. Exposing Herbert to yet another coaching change, when that’s been one of the biggest issues of his career to date, comes with its own risk. But it feels unavoidable.
They’re also more likely to move on from general manager Joe Hortiz, because frankly, his record largely stinks.
Better to take more risks with Herbert than roll the dice on quarterback purgatory. The Chargers have been sneakily good at finding great quarterbacks over the years, but that doesn't mean the next one will follow the trend.
Make no mistake, resetting yet again around Herbert is a recipe for disaster. The Chargers organization needs to figure out what went wrong and why, and where Herbert’s head is at as they regroup. But 99 percent of trade scenarios and ideas fall flat, outside of this one unlikely outlier that requires them to keep tanking with the worst of the NFL.
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