The No. 7 Texas Longhorns have a massive problem offensively — despite having a well-regarded play caller in head coach Steve Sarkisian, a talented quarterback in senior Arch Manning and expensive skill-position talent, the Horns have gone three and out on 13-of-27 possessions in SEC play (48.1 percent), the worst in the conference.
“Any time you have the amount of three and outs that we have right now, that is kind of like when you look at your grandma’s Christmas tree and there’s that blinking light. Like, why is that happening?” Sarkisian said on Monday.
All the ingredients for success are present. And yet…
“We’ve got scheme, we’ve got players, we’ve got attitude. We’ve got all the stuff that should make up to where we shouldn’t have the three and outs. You’re going to have some, but not at the rate that we’re having them.”
Through one lens, the third-down conversion rate is a primary issue because after a strong start to the season, Texas is 6-of-26 (23.1 percent) on third downs over the last two games.
Against the Vols in Knoxville, the Horns faced an average distance of nine yards, not conducive to a high conversion rate, but in Saturday’s loss to the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl, more manageable third downs went unconverted with an average distance of 6.3 yards and only one first down gained on third and short in five opportunities.
“So how do we find that rhythm? How do we execute a little better on third and medium, third and short to extend drive, so we’re not having three and outs? I get 3rd and 10,” Sarkisian said. “Those are hard. So that’s that part.”
The long down and distances that Texas faced against Tennessee speaks to the lack of success on first and second down as the Longhorns went three and out on 6-of-12 drives.
One of the two first-down sacks stalled a drive, but the bigger issue was the inability to run the ball on first down — on 16 rushing attempts, excluding the two sacks, the Longhorns only gained 27 total yards, an abysmal average of 1.7 yards per carry.
Let’s start with an assessment of how the two first-down sacks impacted drives.
After mounting an efficient seven-play, 75-yard drive to open the game with a touchdown against Tennessee, Texas had its first of six three and outs.
On 1st and 10, Sarkisian called a pass play from 10 personnel, but senior right tackle Melvin Siani was slow to get into his pass set, perhaps because of crowd noise, and got beat on a speed rush as Manning took an eight-yard sack.
With a shot at converting an unlikely 3rd and 10, Manning went past the line of scrimmage before completing a pass down the sideline to senior running back Raleek Brown, who was wide open for a significant period of time as Manning vacated the pocket and decided whether to pass or scramble.
The second sack, also an eight-yard loss, came on an overload blitz that the right side of the line picked up poorly, allowing an interior rusher to have a straight shot at the quarterback. A 10-yard run on second down and a huge third-down conversion from Manning to Wingo extended the critical late touchdown drive, an insight into how much needs to go right to recover from a first-down sack.
Following Manning’s interception early in the second quarter, the Horns went three and out on three straight drives.
The first drive never had a chance because a high snap from senior center Connor Robertson went over Manning’s head when he appeared to take his eye of the football to check the Tennessee defensive front that was frequently sending blitzes.
One of those blitzes inflicted a five-yard loss on a run by Brown on the next drive when Texas pulled its right guard on Power and the play was quickly blown up because Robertson was slow to hand off a defensive lineman crossing his face, allowing another fast path into the backfield for a Tennessee defender. The second illegal forward pass by Manning ensured the Longhorns didn’t have a chance to recover.
After halftime, Texas actually had a positive first-down play — a four-yard gain by Brown — but the inability to execute at a high level cost the Longhorns when junior right guard Brandon Baker wasn’t able to make an effective block climbing to the second level on a run that had a chance to gain more yardage.
A one-yard gain by Brown set up a manageable 3rd and 5 as Tennessee opted to drop eight in coverage. When Robertson got overpowered by a bull rush from star Volunteers defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam, who easily won the leverage battle, Manning had to leave the pocket and was quickly brought down by a spy.
In the third quarter, a four-yard loss inflicted on a running play put the drive behind the chains on first down when sophomore left guard Dylan Sikorski was beat across his face on Counter, a hard block to execute, especially because Sikorski didn’t get any help from Robertson. Manning settled for a check down to sophomore tight end Emaree Winston on second down and threw incomplete on 3rd and 8 targeting Winston again.
In the four-minute drill late in the game, offsetting penalties, including a holding call on Texas, forced a replay of first down, a one-yard gain by freshman running back Derrek Cooper. After Cooper was stopped for no gain on second down, Manning was sacked for a 12-yard loss on 3rd and 9.
Against Oklahoma, Texas went three and out on 7-of-15 drives (46.7 percent) despite having signfiicantly more success running the ball on first down.
The start was especially slow for the Horns — other than the 41-yard touchdown pass to junior wide receiver Cam Coleman on the first play of the third drive, Texas went three and out on its other four possessions to open the game.
On their first possession, the Longhorns opened with a positive run, a four-yard gain by senior running back Hollywood Smothers, but Manning threw incomplete into coverage on second down instead of taking a check down to Smothers in the flat.
On 3rd and 6, Sarkisian appeared to call a zone read for Manning, who had a keep read from the end man on the line of scrimmage, but handed it off anyway, and the read defender made the tackle for a three-yard gain.
The reason the play call wasn’t entirely clear? Because Texas had a bubble screen to the field against an out-leveraged defense. If there isn’t a check on that play for Manning to throw that screen, there should be, because it looked like an easy first down had Manning thrown it to junior wide receiver Ryan Wingo with two blockers set up against one defender.
The first play of the second drive was another missed opportunity for the Longhorns. Manning kept another zone read behind an arc block from Winston, who had a chance to help Cam Coleman on the perimeter, but went looking for other work as Coleman failed to bring the necessary physicality to the play and Oklahoma cornerback Trystan Haynes shed the block and made the tackle for a three-yard gain instead of a potential explosive play.
On running plays and passing plays, operating behind blocks from Coleman has proven difficult this season because he’s regressed as a blocker after showing improvement as a sophomore.
After Brown gained six yards on second down, the 3rd and 2 was emblematic of the type of issues the Horns had early when a look back to the sideline was slow to get called and Sarkisian had to burn a timeout less than six minutes into the game when Brown apparently lined up on the wrong side of Manning.
When Texas was able to get the third-down play run, Manning didn’t have a chance to go through any progressions because Robertson was slow with his feet and his eyes in pass protection, failing to pick up a twist that forced a throw to Brown on the perimeter that was closed down quickly by Oklahoma’s speedy pursuit for a two-yard loss.
On the drive after Manning’s impressive touchdown pass to Coleman, a five-yard run by Smothers on first down set the drive up for success, but instead of looking for another positive gain, Sarkisian called a shot play for Coleman that went incomplete.
Considering that the Auburn transfer had one-on-one coverage, it wasn’t a bad idea, but the ball placement by Manning was lacking — the throw took Coleman inside instead of allowing him to adjust over his shoulder — and Coleman tracked the ball poorly, allowing it to go through his arms.
Call that a big missed opportunity for a gain of 40-plus yards.
Still, 3rd and 5 is manageable, but 3rd and 10 isn’t, which is where Texas found itself after a false start by Siani, leading to a five-yard scramble by Manning.
In 12 personnel and looking for a play-action pass late in the first quarter, Sikorski got beat and gave up a sack before Manning had a chance to connect with Brown on his check release, leading to another sack on third down when Manning’s pocket presence let him down, contributing to the blocked punt touchdown that followed.
Early in the third quarter, the Longhorns had another missed opportunity when two runs by Smothers set up another 3rd and 2. Texas had converted a similar situation earlier in the game with a play-action pass to Mosley on a corner route, but when Sarkisian went back to it again, Mosley and sophomore tight end Nick Townsed were both covered and Manning had to throw the ball away.
Considering how many times Texas failed to convert third and short against Oklahoma, it’s concerning that Sarkisian didn’t feel like he had any other effective calls, especially since the Sooners covered the tight end both times, so moving the chains on 3rd and 2 required a 15-yard pass because of the play design.
That was the first of three consecutive three and outs for the Horns, followed by Texas failing to convert 3rd and 1 with a run by Cooper because the right side of the line got whipped by Oklahoma defenders, including Siani getting pushed down by defensive end Wyatt Gilmore, who only played three snaps on Saturday, but certainly made that one count.
Too frequently in important moments, the Longhorns couldn’t match the physicality of the Sooners.
On the final three and out, Manning misfired on a short pass to junior wide receiver Emmett Mosley V and the Longhorns got further behind the chains when Siani was called for a holding penalty when the defensive end simply used better technique on his pass rush. Two subsequent completions by Manning only netted 12 yards.
In breaking down the 13 three and outs over the last two games, there are a few common themes, like the need for better play from Robertson and Siani along the offensive line, but the difficulty is that there have been enough mistakes made across the board that fixing the three and out issues becomes a complex task that requires improvement from virtually everyone involved in the offense.
But at least Sarkisian is a sicko?
“In a weird way, I’m a little sick that way,” Sarkisan said. “I like a little adversity. I think it’s good for us. I don’t mind having this adversity. I don’t mind having a little thorn in our side. I think it’s good for us. So we’ll respond.”