Dr. Abdijalil Hassan*
MOGADISHU — A geopolitical map displayed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an October 18 security briefing has thrust Somalia’s newly inaugurated Northeastern State into the center of a widening Red Sea proxy contest, revealing a stark strategic divide between the fledgling federal member state and the UAE and Israel-aligned regions of Somaliland and Puntland.
The map, which Netanyahu presented while outlining Israel’s updated national security doctrine ahead of elections, color-codes Somaliland and Puntland in light blue as part of a purported “Hexagon Alliance” friendly to Israel and the United Arab Emirates. The rest of Somalia, including the separately identified Northeastern State appears in light green under the “Sunni Diamond” grouping, comprising Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. While the graphic was originally produced by researchers at Germany’s Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and represents an analytical assessment of alignments rather than formal treaty commitments, its display by Netanyahu has given it unmistakable political weight.
For the Northeastern State, the classification is both a strategic confirmation and a vulnerability. Inaugurated in January 2026 with the backing of the Somali federal government, the state, centered on Las Anod was created from territory previously claimed by Somaliland and Puntland, both of which have rejected the new administration and its federal alignment. the Northeastern State’s forces defeated their adversaries in late fighting and took control of contested areas that its neighbors have long claimed. That battlefield outcome has strengthened popular backing for the new federal member state among residents who view it as a long-overdue institutional answer to decades of instability and overlapping claims. the State now finds itself geographically cornered between two regions that are not only hostile to its existence but are now explicitly linked on Netanyahu’s map to the Israel-UAE strategic orbit.
The map’s implications extend beyond symbolism. Somaliland has received significant diplomatic and security backing from both the UAE and Israel, particularly following Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland as an “independent state”, a move Somali Federal Republic rejected as a violation of its sovereignty. Puntland, though still a federal member state, has developed deep economic and security ties with the UAE, including involvement in the operation of Bosaso port and cooperation in military training. Together, the two regions form a de facto corridor of Emirati and Israeli influence along the Gulf of Aden, directly abutting the Northeastern State’s territory.
By contrast, the Northeastern State is firmly anchored in the Sunni Diamond camp. Its federal patrons Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan have moved decisively to institutionalize their security relationship with Somalia. In August 2026, the three countries signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, committing to collective deterrence in which an armed attack against one would be treated as an attack against all. Somalia’s defense ministry welcomed the pact as a strategic partnership capable of addressing shared security challenges. Pakistan has separately deepened defense cooperation with Mogadishu, including discussions on rebuilding the Somali Air Force and reported interest in JF-17 fighter aircraft, while Saudi Arabia signed a military cooperation memorandum with Somalia in February 2026. Egypt and Qatar have also been identified as federal allies supporting the Northeastern State’s inauguration as a counterweight to Emirati influence.
Yet the presence of powerful patrons does not erase the Northeastern State’s immediate predicament. It is a new, institutionally fragile administration surrounded by rivals with established foreign backers, and its adversaries have shown no inclination to accept its legitimacy. Somaliland’s leadership has framed the state’s creation as a partition of its claimed territory; Puntland has withdrawn its recognition of the federal government altogether and joined an anti-Mogadishu political coalition. The map Netanyahu displayed did not create these tensions, but it has clarified the lines along which they are likely to escalate: the Northeastern State is not merely a domestic federal experiment but a frontline node in the competition between the Israel-UAE axis and the Türkiye-Saudi-Pakistan constellation.
For the Northeastern State’s allies, the message is urgent. The state’s survival depends on tangible support, security guarantees, reconstruction funding, and diplomatic cover from Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, whose own strategic interests in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden increasingly converge on preventing the further expansion of Emirati and Israeli influence along Somalia’s northern coast. The Mecca defense pact provides a framework, but frameworks alone do not secure borders. If the Sunni Diamond powers intend to hold the line in northern Somalia, the cornered Northeastern State will need more than a color on a map.
*Dr. Abdijalil Hassan ia a former lecturer at East Africa University, provides expert analysis on conflict dynamics across the Horn of Africa. The views expressed are his and he can be reached at Jallilu45@gmail.com. The views expressed are his.