Overview
Bitcoin trades near $82k on Monday, about 2% lower on the week after a quiet stretch inside the range it has held since the early October slide. A dip on Thursday held just above $80k. The heavy selling behind that slide has faded, but fresh demand has not replaced it.
Perpetual takers remain net sellers, still below their low band, though the selling eased, and funding paid by longs climbed back inside its range. Futures open interest held in the upper part of its range. ETF outflows narrowed to about $230M and moved back inside their range, yet ETF trade volume slipped below its low band. Spot takers kept selling within their normal range, and momentum sank to the edge of its low band.
Options traders kept paying for protection: 25-delta skew rose further inside its range, implied volatility moved above realized volatility, and options open interest edged higher. On-chain activity cooled, with fees and transfer volume down about 10% each inside their ranges, while active addresses held steady.
Capital keeps moving into newer hands: the monthly change in realized cap and the hot capital share stay above their high bands, and the ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply edged above its high band. Profitability cooled with price. Realized profit-taking fell back inside its range, supply in profit slipped just below its high band at just over two thirds, and short-term holder gains keep shrinking, though they stay above their high band. In short, the selling has eased but spot and ETF buyers have not returned, while capital keeps moving into newer hands and profit-taking has cooled.
Off-Chain Indicators
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Spot Indicators
Price Momentum. Decreased 20.0% from 45.0 to 36.0 over the week, signaling a shift toward selling pressure. Price Momentum declined toward the lower boundary, resting just above its low band. This movement points to weakening price action and increased selling pressure, highlighting a notable shift in trend strength as buyers lose dominance in the current market environment.
Spot CVD. Decreased 24.7% from -$67.0M to -$83.6M over the week, indicating dominant aggressive selling. Spot CVD extended further into negative territory, while staying in the lower part of its range. This trajectory underscores persistent aggressive selling by market participants on centralized exchanges, signaling a pronounced absence of buying conviction in the near term.
Spot Volume. Increased 2.1% from $5.4B to $5.5B over the week, reflecting stable trading activity. Spot Volume hovered comfortably within its established boundaries, staying well inside its range. This steady turnover suggests that overall market participation remains stable without signalling any sudden exhaustion or breakout attempts from current levels.
Futures Indicators
Futures Open Interest. Decreased by 0.3% from $36.5B 7 days ago to $36.4B today. Futures Open Interest saw a slight contraction in total nominal value, reflecting mild position unwinding and a cautious risk-off posture. The metric is positioned in the upper part of its range, indicating that participation remains elevated despite the minor reduction in active contracts across derivatives venues.
Long-Side Funding Payment. Increased by 49.4% from $1.1M 7 days ago to $1.6M today. Long-Side Funding Payment climbed back well inside its established statistical range, indicating a renewed demand for long exposure where aggressive market participants showed an increased willingness to pay a premium to maintain bullish positions.
Perpetual CVD. Increased by 36.9% from -$891.1M 7 days ago to -$562.7M today. Perpetual CVD advanced upward as aggressive sell-side pressure moderated, pointing toward a gradual easing of distribution behavior among aggressive takers. The metric rests below its low band, highlighting that cumulative order book flows remain heavily skewed toward net selling despite the recent improvement.
Options Indicators
Options Open Interest. Increased from $37.4B to $38.6B, representing a 3.1% expansion in total outstanding notional value. Options Open Interest expanded moderately while staying safely inside its established range, indicating steady capital commitment from institutional and retail participants alike. The higher aggregate notional value points to sustained market participation and an increased reliance on derivatives for positioning, without signaling extreme speculative excess or sudden position unwinds.
Volatility Spread. Increased from -3.8% to 2.1%, shifting from a negative spread to a positive one, a change of 155.0%. Volatility Spread moved upward from negative territory while remaining comfortably within its statistical bands, showing that implied volatility began to outpace realized price movement. This transition suggests that options are once again pricing in slightly more expected risk than the underlying asset is currently delivering, signaling a subtle revival of anticipatory hedging.
Options 25-Delta Skew. Increased from 5.2% to 8.6%, marking a 65.3% surge in demand for downside protection over the week. Options 25-Delta Skew climbed significantly higher while remaining well below its high band, reflecting a growing appetite for downside protection among derivatives participants. This upward shift demonstrates that out-of-the-money puts became noticeably more expensive than calls, pointing to an intensifying defensive stance and rising caution across market participants.
ETF Indicators
US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly). Increased by 65.9% as outflows narrowed from -$674.9M to -$230.0M over the week. US Spot ETF Netflow (Weekly) demonstrates that capital withdrawals by institutional participants have moderated significantly. The metric moved back inside its range from below its low band, while still reflecting ongoing capital flight and reduced engagement from traditional finance market participants seeking liquidity rather than exposure.
US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly). Decreased by 3.2% in trading activity, falling from $10.4B to $10.1B over the week. US Spot ETF Trade Volume (Weekly) highlights a slight cooling of secondary market engagement across regulated tickers. The aggregate activity slipped below its low band, pointing toward subdued trading interest and a consolidation phase among institutional participants reacting to prevailing market conditions.
US Spot ETF MVRV. Decreased by 0.8% over the week, moving from a value of 1.5 to 1.4. US Spot ETF MVRV indicates that aggregate holdings remain in moderate profit despite a minor contraction. The ratio sits near the low band, reflecting persistent restraint among traditional finance investors as their average profit margin narrows.
On-Chain Indicators
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Fundamental Indicators
Total Fee Volume. Decreased by 10.1% compared to 7 days ago, falling to $202.7K in aggregate transaction fees. Total Fee Volume drifted downward while staying inside its statistical channel, signaling reduced transaction pressure and lower usage intensity as organic demand for block space experiences a cooling period.
Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume. Decreased by 10.6% compared to 7 days ago, dropping to $4.6B in economic settlement volume. Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume moved lower while remaining comfortably inside its established band, pointing to a modest reduction in capital movement and economic throughput as market participants transition into a quieter consolidation phase.
Daily Active Address Count. Increased by 0.5% compared to 7 days ago, reaching 635.8K unique active addresses. Daily Active Address Count remains steady near the middle of its statistical range, reflecting consistent user participation and baseline network engagement without signaling speculative expansion or contraction across the active user base.
Capital Flows Indicators
Realized Cap Change (Monthly). Increased by 3.8% to 1.3% compared to 1.2% seven days ago. Realized Cap Change (Monthly) has edged higher above its high band. Such behavior points to net capital inflows as coins are acquired at elevated prices, typically aligning with robust accumulation phases while filtering out broader macro market noise.
STH to LTH Supply Ratio. Increased by 1.4% to 14.7% compared to 14.5% seven days ago. STH to LTH Supply Ratio has edged just above its high band. This configuration indicates a growing presence of newer and more reactive participants, linking directly to elevated trading activity and heightened speculative churn across the holder base.
Hot Capital Share. Decreased by 0.0% to 20.3% compared to 20.3% seven days ago. Hot Capital Share remains elevated above its high band. This positioning signals an ongoing influx of short-term and price-sensitive capital, reflecting heightened speculative phases and increased volatility sensitivity within the current network liquidity profile.
Profit/Loss States Indicators
Percent Supply in Profit. Decreased from 70.1% to 68.2%, marking a reduction of 2.7% across the seven days. Percent Supply in Profit drifted lower as spot prices receded. The reading sits right around the high band showing that roughly two thirds of the circulating supply remains held at a lower cost basis while latent sell side pressure stays contained.
Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio. Decreased from 10.5% to 9.0%, representing a decline of 13.7% over the week. Net Unrealized Profit to Loss Ratio drifted downward while remaining above its high band. This elevated positioning reflects persistent unrealized gains among short-term holders, signaling that they maintain favorable profit margins despite mild profit compression.
Realized Profit to Loss Ratio. Decreased from 0.8 to 0.4, reflecting a downward adjustment of 41.8% over the period. Realized Profit to Loss Ratio dropped significantly while falling below its high band. This contraction demonstrates that profit realization activity cooled relative to loss realization on-chain, highlighting a transition toward more subdued sentiment and diminished aggressive spending by market participants.
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Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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