BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Poll published Thursday, 22 October, about 6 p.m. ET · Source: Datafolha, via Folha de S.Paulo
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What changed Datafolha now has Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula tied at 50% of valid votes each, after 51% to 49% a week earlier.
- The numbers Raw totals are 47% for Flávio and 46% for Lula, with 5% blank or null and 2% undecided.
- Margin of error 2 points either way at 95% confidence, so the race is a statistical tie.
- Fieldwork 2,154 voters were interviewed from Tuesday 20 to Thursday 22 October (registration BR-09709/2026).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.4% chance and Lula 23.5% (22 October, 6:25 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 22%), as of 22 October, 6:00 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Three days remain before the vote, and nothing in this survey shows which way undecided voters will move.
A new poll three days before the runoff shows a dead heat: Brazil election 2026 candidates Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula each have 50% of valid votes in the new Datafolha survey. The polling institute published it on Thursday 22 October at about 6 p.m. ET.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
36 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is Brazil’s president. See every survey in our Brazil election polls tracker.
What the New Datafolha Poll Found
Datafolha interviewed 2,154 voters in person from 20 to 22 October, and the survey has a 2-point margin of error and TSE registration BR-09709/2026, Exame reported. The TSE is Brazil’s electoral court.
In raw totals, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47% and Lula has 46%, with 5% voting blank or null and 2% undecided, InfoMoney reported. Once those answers are set aside, the split is 50% to 50% in valid votes.
How the Race Moved in Two Weeks
The 15 October Datafolha survey had Flávio ahead 51% to 49% in valid votes and 47% to 45% in raw totals. Our report on that poll has the full numbers.
The 8 October survey had Flávio ahead 52% to 48% in valid votes, InfoMoney reported. His valid-vote share has therefore fallen two points in two weeks, while Lula’s has risen two.
Why a Statistical Tie Matters
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how Brazil’s electoral authority announces results. A statistical tie means the gap is smaller than the survey can reliably measure.
With a 2-point margin on each number, this poll cannot name a leader. Only 2% of voters are undecided, so the final days will turn mostly on turnout and on voters who change their minds.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a tie this close can mean price swings until the count ends on Sunday night. Brazil’s currency, the real, is also exposed to the result.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner sets Brazil’s course with Washington for four years. Neither candidate is a certain winner, so treat any single poll with care.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (22 October, 6:25 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$192 million in trades.
These are bets, not polls, and Polymarket still favours Flávio even though the survey shows a tie. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.5% · Lula 22.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 22 October, 6:00 pm ET (23:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The sources we reviewed do not break the result down by region or income. Whether the narrowing continues before Sunday is not known.
It is not known how many voters will stay home or how undecided voters will split. A poll measures opinion on the days of interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Neither candidate leads in valid votes: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula each have 50%, Datafolha reported on Thursday 22 October. In raw totals, Flávio has 47% and Lula 46%.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, three days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is the margin of error?
The margin is 2 percentage points either way at a 95% confidence level. A 1-point raw gap or a tie in valid votes is inside that margin.
How did the poll change from last week?
On 15 October, Datafolha had Flávio ahead 51% to 49% in valid votes. The tie means his lead has disappeared within a week.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, matching how the electoral authority announces results. Raw totals count every voter interviewed.
Sources: Exame; InfoMoney; O Tempo; Terra, all 22 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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