MOSCOW, October 14. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) decline in global oil demand in 2026 as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to weigh on global markets, according to the agency's latest report.
This represents a 100,000 bpd downward revision from September, when the IEA projected a 2.5 million bpd drop. The agency notes that global oil demand will fall by 2.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
According to the agency, in the third quarter of 2026, supply volumes contracted by 3.7 million bpd year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement compared to the 5 million bpd slump seen in the second quarter. For most of the first six months of the conflict [in the Middle East], global demand remained close to 2019 levels. However, it is now expected to grow, driven by a gradual rise in supplies from Persian Gulf nations, the IEA stated.
The agency estimates that oil consumption growth will not return to positive territory until March 2027 at the earliest, which will drive a 2 million bpd demand increase for the full year 2027. According to the IEA, global oil demand in 2026 will average 102.377 million bpd, down from 104.994 million bpd in 2025. For 2027, the agency projects demand at 104.377 million bpd.