Kansas carries a 17-game losing streak against Kansas State into Manhattan to headline college football’s Week 7 upset watch, one of six games where the underdog has a credible path to an outright win.
The Jayhawks haven’t won the Sunflower Showdown since 2008, but Kansas State has dropped its first two Big 12 games under first-year coach Collin Klein, and the line has fallen from 8.5 points at the open to 4.5.
Each game gets an upset grade from 1 to 10, and a 10 means the underdog has the clearest path to an outright win. Six more games get shorter grades in the final section. Hat tip to Game On Paper and ESPN FPI for many of the advanced stats used in this article.
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Kansas (+4.5) at Kansas State: Upset Watch 7.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, noon ET (FS1)
Klein was on the Wildcats’ roster for that 2008 loss and for the 2009 win that started the streak. “The score is 0-0 right now, and we’ve got to earn it every single day this week on the practice field to leave the game Saturday how we want,” Klein said Monday.
Kansas coach Lance Leipold is 0-5 against K-State, and he conceded this week that the Jayhawks still haven’t made it a two-sided rivalry. “For a lot of years, I said, ‘It can’t be much of a rivalry unless we hold our end of the bargain up,’ and we haven’t done that yet,” Leipold said.
Kansas State (3-2) managed 16 points in a home loss to Houston last week, while Kansas (2-3) fell 41-24 at Utah.
Kansas has the better defense, ranking 20th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, compared with K-State’s 73rd, and it has played a tougher schedule. Jayhawks running back Dylan Edwards also faces his former team after transferring from Manhattan. If the Kansas defense holds quarterback Avery Johnson and the Wildcats in the 20s, the Jayhawks have their best chance in years to end the streak.
Picks: Kansas 28-27, Kansas +4.5, Under 55.5
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UMass (+7) at Buffalo: Upset Watch 8
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
UMass opened 4-0, starting with a 37-21 win at Rutgers that snapped a 16-game losing streak. The Minutemen have since dropped two straight home games, and they’ll likely start their third quarterback in three weeks. Pop Watson (ankle) is unlikely to play, and freshman Aedan McCarthy is out after getting hurt in last week’s 20-19 loss to Miami (Ohio).
That leaves Drake transfer Logan Inagawa or Ty McCutcheon. Inagawa completed all six of his passes for 83 yards on UMass’ final drive against Miami. “Logan’s played college football. He’s got games under his belt. To come in and do what he did was great,” UMass coach Joe Harasymiak said.
Defense has carried UMass, which allows 300.7 yards per game to rank first in the MAC. The Minutemen also rate ahead of Buffalo in ESPN’s offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency rankings.
Buffalo (3-3, 1-1 MAC) turned to a backup of its own after Elijah Holmes suffered a season-ending knee injury. Jason Wright has completed 48.8% of his passes in four starts, so the Bulls lean on running back Messiah Burch, who has topped 100 rushing yards in three straight games.
Buffalo won the first Flagship Cup 28-21 last season with a touchdown in the final minute. This time, UMass’ defense keeps Wright from finishing drives, and the Minutemen flip the result with a late score of their own.
Picks: UMass 23-20, UMass +7, Over 42.5
Missouri (+5.5) at Ole Miss: Upset Watch 9.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Three starters from Ole Miss’ 2025 Playoff team now play for Missouri: Simmons, receiver Cayden Lee and cornerback Chris Graves Jr. Ole Miss coach Pete Golding didn’t downplay what the Rebels lost. “We know how good they are. They all started on a playoff team here. They’re really good players,” Golding said.
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz turned the scouting question back on the Rebels. “Austin’s been going against that defense for three years. Cayden Lee went against that defense for three years,” Drinkwitz said.
Lee leads Missouri with 42 catches for 616 yards and five touchdowns. The Tigers haven’t lost since blowing a fourth-quarter lead at Mississippi State, and their defense ranks fifth nationally in adjusted EPA per play. Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt 52-17 last week and owns wins over LSU and Louisville, but running back Kewan Lacy is still working back from injury.
Drinkwitz knows Missouri can’t play keep-away all afternoon. “The way they score points, I don’t think we can sit in a bunker for three quarters,” he said. Still, a running game averaging 181.7 yards keeps Chambliss on the sideline long enough for the Tigers to win in Oxford.
Picks: Missouri 30-27, Missouri +5.5, Under 58.5
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Penn State (+7) at Michigan: Upset Watch 6
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Two first-year coaches meet in Ann Arbor without a Big Ten win between them. Penn State (3-3, 0-3) has lost three straight under Matt Campbell, including a 34-13 loss to Northwestern. Michigan (3-2, 0-2) returns from a bye after a 20-14 loss at Minnesota in which it gained 180 total yards.
Wolverines coach Kyle Whittingham pointed to one problem above the rest. “Our big demise is turnover margin,” Whittingham said. Michigan ranks 122nd nationally in turnover margin, while Penn State is plus-5. Whittingham also said “Bryce is our guy,” referring to quarterback Bryce Underwood, though Tommy Carr could get a series.
Campbell framed the trip as a test of his team’s makeup. “Do we have the leadership, the toughness and the character? You’re going to find out a lot more about us this week,” Campbell said.
Penn State will play without receiver Koby Howard, who had 344 receiving yards and six total touchdowns in the first three games before his injury. Quarterback Rocco Becht still threw for 289 yards against USC. Michigan’s run defense allows only 94.6 yards per game, so Becht’s arm decides whether the Nittany Lions keep pace. Michigan wins at home, but Penn State’s turnover edge keeps it inside the number.
Picks: Michigan 23-20, Penn State +7, Over 42.5
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Arkansas (+6) at Vanderbilt: Upset Watch 4.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3 SEC) has lost three straight, including a 52-17 home loss to Ole Miss. The Commodores dismissed receiver Kayleb Barnett on Monday after his arrest in Nashville following that game, and three more players are out with injuries from the loss.
Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea called it one of his worst days with the program. “And yet, without boundaries, there’s erosion. With erosion, there’s flooding. And so to continue to fight for those every single day is critical,” Lea said.
Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) led then-No. 15 Tennessee 14-7 in the third quarter last week before losing 24-17. First-year coach Ryan Silverfield’s offense managed 288 yards and converted 2 of 11 third downs. Receiver Chris Marshall has 42 catches for 605 yards, and no other Razorback has more than 12 receptions.
This is Arkansas’ first trip to Vanderbilt since 2011, and the Razorbacks have played the nation’s third-toughest schedule. Vanderbilt is shorthanded, but Arkansas’ passing game runs through one receiver, and that lets the Commodores hold on at home.
Picks: Vanderbilt 27-24, Arkansas +6, Over 49.5
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Nebraska (+7) at Oregon: Upset Watch 7
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, 11 p.m. ET (Fox)
Oregon (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) will miss Moore for a second straight game while he recovers from a concussion suffered at USC on Sept. 26. Ducks coach Dan Lanning hasn’t named a starter among Dylan Raiola, Brock Thomas and Akili Smith Jr.
Raiola started 23 games over two seasons at Nebraska. In last week’s 17-15 loss to UCLA, he completed 6 of 19 passes for 43 yards with two interceptions and a lost fumble before Thomas replaced him. “Of course, it’s going to be an emotional game for Dylan, being the place he came from,” Lanning said.
That loss dropped Oregon out of the AP Top 25, so Nebraska’s 31-game losing streak against ranked opponents isn’t on the line in Eugene. The Huskers (5-1, 2-1) led Indiana 17-6 in the fourth quarter last week before falling 20-17, and they’ll play without safety Jamir Conn.
Oregon’s defense and special teams hold up at Autzen Stadium. Still, Nebraska’s offense keeps the Huskers within a field goal against a team that doesn’t know who its quarterback will be.
Picks: Oregon 27-24, Nebraska +7, Under 51.5
More upset watches
- Mississippi State (+15.5) at LSU: Upset Watch 2. Kirk Herbstreit said the Tigers can’t afford a loss to the No. 16 Bulldogs. Mississippi State (4-1) lists quarterback Kamario Taylor as questionable with a leg injury.
- Virginia (+9.5) at SMU: Upset Watch 3.5. Virginia (4-2) ranks 40th in ESPN defensive efficiency to SMU’s 49th.
- Rutgers (+5.5) at Maryland: Upset Watch 4. Maryland (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) has lost 11 straight conference games, and it has allowed an average of 49 points in three Big Ten losses. Dylan Lonergan will start at quarterback.
- TCU (+5.5) at Baylor: Upset Watch 5. Baylor (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) has won four straight and outscored those opponents 158-54. TCU (2-3, 0-2) lost 17-10 to BYU before its bye.
- Kentucky (+6.5) at Oklahoma: Upset Watch 5.5. No. 15 Kentucky has beaten Texas A&M and LSU under first-year coach Will Stein, and David Pollack has taken notice of the Wildcats’ rise.
- Oklahoma State (+4.5) at Houston: Upset Watch 4.5. No. 18 Oklahoma State (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) has won four straight under first-year coach Eric Morris. No. 20 Houston (5-1) beat Kansas State 35-16 as Conner Weigman threw four touchdown passes to tight end Patrick Overmyer.
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