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UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev opens the main card with a fight between Aaron Pico and Losene Keita in the featherweight division. Check out our UFC 333 odds series for our Pico-Keita prediction and pick.
Aaron Pico (14-5) earned his first Octagon victory by defeating Patricio Freire via unanimous decision at UFC 327 on April 11. That rebound performance followed a first-round knockout loss to Lerone Murphy in his August 2025 promotional debut, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Losene Keita.
Losene Keita (17-2) scored a first-round knockout over Muhammad Naimov on September 5 to earn his first promotional win and a performance bonus. He dropped a March split decision to Nathaniel Wood in his debut, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Aaron Pico.
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UFC 333 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 333 Odds: Aaron Pico-Losene Keita Odds
Aaron Pico: -148
Losene Keita: +124
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
Why Aaron Pico Will Win
Aaron Pico possesses the exact wrestling pedigree and top-control game needed to neutralize an explosive striker like Losene Keita. Averaging nearly eight takedowns per fifteen minutes, the American can bypass a dangerous kickboxing match entirely by putting the Belgian on his back early and often.
In his recent victory over Patricio Freire, Pico showed newfound maturity and patience, resisting the urge to brawl wildly and instead mixing his elite boxing with timely level changes. His left hook to the liver remains one of the most devastating weapons in the featherweight division, setting up his double-leg entries seamlessly.
With Keita stepping in on short notice to replace Arnold Allen, the European standout has not had a full training camp tailored specifically for a relentless wrestler of Pico’s caliber. Once Pico secures top position, his heavy ground-and-pound and suffocating rides can quickly drain an opponent’s explosiveness.
By fighting a disciplined, wrestling-heavy game plan and avoiding fifty-fifty pocket exchanges in the opening minutes, Pico can dictate every phase of this bout. He will ground Keita repeatedly, wear him down with heavy strikes from half guard, and secure a clear victory.
Why Losene Keita Will Win
Losene Keita is one of the fastest, most athletic knockout artists at 145 pounds, possessing blistering hand speed and nuclear power in both fists. Spending seventy-five percent of his fight time at distance, he excels at sniping opponents with laser-accurate straight punches and explosive counter hooks.
Historically, Aaron Pico’s biggest vulnerability has been his chin and his tendency to get drawn into reckless firefights, with all five of his career defeats coming by way of stoppage. Even when Pico intends to wrestle, he often enters range behind aggressive combinations with his head on the centerline.
Keita thrives against aggressive forward pressure, using his two-inch reach advantage and quick footwork to create collision knockouts as opponents step in. Coming off a quick first-round knockout just seven weeks ago against Muhammad Naimov, Keita enters this matchup sharp, confident, and in peak fighting rhythm.
If Keita can stuff the initial takedown attempts or scramble back to his feet using the fence, he will have ample opportunities to test Pico’s durability. One clean counter right hand during a pocket exchange is all Keita needs to put the lights out.
Final Aaron Pico-Losene Keita Prediction & Pick
This featherweight opener on the main card is guaranteed fireworks between two elite athletes with contrasting paths to victory. Losene Keita steps in on short notice riding the momentum of a September first-round knockout, bringing terrifying hand speed that directly threatens Aaron Pico’s historically vulnerable chin.
However, Pico demonstrated against Patricio Freire in April that he has finally learned to temper his aggression and lean on his credentialed wrestling background. Against a dynamic striker who did not have a full camp to prepare for relentless chain wrestling, Pico’s path of least resistance is crystal clear.
Keita will be extremely dangerous in the opening two minutes of every round, forcing Pico to use disciplined feints and high-guard defense before shooting. Once Pico closes the distance and locks his hands around Keita’s hips, his superior mat craft and heavy top pressure will take over the fight.
Pico will survive the early speed of Keita, ground him consistently across three rounds, and win a unanimous decision.
Final Aaron Pico-Losene Keita Prediction & Pick: Aaron Pico (-148), OVER 1.5 Rounds (-154)
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