Trump’s Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, reacted with surprise this weekend to the US proposal for a partial ceasefire covering attacks on energy infrastructure.
Trump’s claim seemed to come out of nowhere, and there is considerable evidence that it was not grounded in reality, according to Dag Blanck, professor of North American studies at Uppsala University.
One should be careful in one’s assessments. Especially if Zelensky says he hasn’t heard of it, that’s a sign that it’s not a ceasefire. Then it’s a typical Trumpian bombastic statement.
It’s about the election.
What is driving Trump above all is stress ahead of the US midterm elections in three weeks and concern that the Republicans will lose their majority in Congress, Blanck points out. Historically, high fossil fuel prices have hurt incumbent politicians.
Both gasoline and diesel prices are high in the US, and that is a big problem for him because the US is such a car-driven society. Diesel is also very important in agriculture, for tractors and combine harvesters.
Polls suggest that Republicans are losing ground in some Midwestern states, such as Kansas and Iowa, which are usually strongholds. One contributing factor, according to Blanck, is high energy prices. Trump has now promised falling prices and defied previously imposed sanctions on Russia to buy diesel from there - even though the latter, according to economic analysts, has only a marginal effect on prices.
It’s all about him. But whether he succeeds is another matter. It hasn’t gone so well so far, says Blanck, adding:
He has had problems with the war in Iran and fuel crises, even though he says there are no problems. But reality speaks a different language.
Low popularity
Regardless of how the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes, Trump will not admit any wrongdoing, Blanck believes.
There is something else that is characteristic of Trump.
There are also critics of Trump’s handling of Russia within the Republican Party, but Blanck believes they will remain quiet at least until after the midterm elections.
If there is a big loss, as some predict, it will be interesting to see what the reactions will be.